Douglas Dynamics Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| PLOW Stock | USD 37.10 0.50 1.33% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Douglas Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 36.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.39. Douglas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Douglas Dynamics' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.76) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4567 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.12 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.41 | Wall Street Target Price 38.75 |
Using Douglas Dynamics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Douglas Dynamics from the perspective of Douglas Dynamics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Douglas Dynamics using Douglas Dynamics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Douglas using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Douglas Dynamics' stock price.
Douglas Dynamics Short Interest
An investor who is long Douglas Dynamics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Douglas Dynamics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Douglas Dynamics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 30.3429 | Short Percent 0.0157 | Short Ratio 2.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 353.1 K | 50 Day MA 33.27 |
Douglas Dynamics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Douglas Dynamics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Douglas. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Douglas can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Douglas Dynamics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Douglas Dynamics Implied Volatility | 1.13 |
Douglas Dynamics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Douglas Dynamics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Douglas Dynamics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Douglas Dynamics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Douglas Dynamics' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Douglas Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 36.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.39. Douglas Dynamics after-hype prediction price | USD 37.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Douglas Dynamics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Douglas contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Douglas Dynamics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0706% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Douglas Dynamics trading at USD 37.1, that is roughly USD 0.0262 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Douglas Dynamics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Douglas Dynamics options at the current volatility level of 1.13%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Douglas Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Douglas Dynamics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Douglas Dynamics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Douglas Dynamics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Douglas Dynamics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Douglas Dynamics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Douglas Dynamics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Douglas. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Douglas Dynamics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Douglas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Douglas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Douglas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Douglas Dynamics Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Douglas Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 36.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Douglas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Douglas Dynamics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Douglas Dynamics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Douglas Dynamics | Douglas Dynamics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Douglas Dynamics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Douglas Dynamics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Douglas Dynamics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.90 and 38.19, respectively. We have considered Douglas Dynamics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Douglas Dynamics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Douglas Dynamics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7512 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7321 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0225 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.3922 |
Predictive Modules for Douglas Dynamics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Douglas Dynamics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Douglas Dynamics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Douglas Dynamics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Douglas Dynamics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Douglas Dynamics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Douglas Dynamics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Douglas Dynamics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Douglas Dynamics' historical news coverage. Douglas Dynamics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.52 and 38.80, respectively. We have considered Douglas Dynamics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Douglas Dynamics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Douglas Dynamics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Douglas Dynamics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Douglas Dynamics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Douglas Dynamics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Douglas Dynamics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.64 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
37.10 | 37.16 | 0.16 |
|
Douglas Dynamics Hype Timeline
Douglas Dynamics is at this time traded for 37.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Douglas is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 37.16 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Douglas Dynamics is about 896.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.15. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 568.5 M. Net Income was 56.15 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 162.28 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Douglas Dynamics to cross-verify your projections.Douglas Dynamics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Douglas Dynamics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Douglas Dynamics' future price movements. Getting to know how Douglas Dynamics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Douglas Dynamics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AXL | American Axle Manufacturing | (0.34) | 15 per month | 2.16 | 0.17 | 6.86 | (4.01) | 13.25 | |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | 0.62 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.07 | (2.25) | 7.22 | |
| CARS | Cars Inc | 0.05 | 10 per month | 1.87 | 0.06 | 3.99 | (3.44) | 10.98 | |
| BBW | Build A Bear Workshop | 1.57 | 9 per month | 3.78 | 0.06 | 4.68 | (4.37) | 25.04 | |
| CSV | Carriage Services | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.07 | (1.89) | 6.13 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | 0.69 | 10 per month | 2.13 | 0.01 | 5.19 | (2.90) | 11.50 | |
| MYE | Myers Industries | (0.10) | 8 per month | 0.87 | 0.19 | 2.81 | (1.75) | 7.31 | |
| MLR | Miller Industries | (0.19) | 10 per month | 1.88 | (0.04) | 2.66 | (2.49) | 7.96 | |
| CANG | Cango Inc | (0.18) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 10.83 | (7.64) | 25.75 | |
| CPS | Cooper Stnd | (0.23) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.82 | (5.11) | 21.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Douglas Dynamics
For every potential investor in Douglas, whether a beginner or expert, Douglas Dynamics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Douglas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Douglas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Douglas Dynamics' price trends.Douglas Dynamics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Douglas Dynamics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Douglas Dynamics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Douglas Dynamics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Douglas Dynamics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Douglas Dynamics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Douglas Dynamics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Douglas Dynamics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Douglas Dynamics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10129.88 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.33) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 37.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 37.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.96) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.50) |
Douglas Dynamics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Douglas Dynamics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Douglas Dynamics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting douglas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9076 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8237 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Douglas Dynamics
The number of cover stories for Douglas Dynamics depends on current market conditions and Douglas Dynamics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Douglas Dynamics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Douglas Dynamics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Douglas Dynamics Short Properties
Douglas Dynamics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Douglas Dynamics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Douglas Dynamics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Douglas Dynamics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Douglas Dynamics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.1 M |
Additional Tools for Douglas Stock Analysis
When running Douglas Dynamics' price analysis, check to measure Douglas Dynamics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Douglas Dynamics is operating at the current time. Most of Douglas Dynamics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Douglas Dynamics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Douglas Dynamics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Douglas Dynamics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.