PennyMac Mortgage Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

PMT Stock  USD 13.73  0.26  1.93%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 13.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.15. PennyMac Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of PennyMac Mortgage's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of PennyMac Mortgage's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PennyMac Mortgage Investment, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting PennyMac Mortgage's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.541
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.3852
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.1831
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.6362
Wall Street Target Price
13.5714
Using PennyMac Mortgage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment from the perspective of PennyMac Mortgage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PennyMac Mortgage using PennyMac Mortgage's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PennyMac using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PennyMac Mortgage's stock price.

PennyMac Mortgage Short Interest

An investor who is long PennyMac Mortgage may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PennyMac Mortgage and may potentially protect profits, hedge PennyMac Mortgage with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
12.5516
Short Percent
0.0699
Short Ratio
3.87
Shares Short Prior Month
4.8 M
50 Day MA
12.6218

PennyMac Mortgage Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to PennyMac Mortgage's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PennyMac. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PennyMac can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PennyMac Mortgage Investment. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PennyMac Mortgage's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about PennyMac Mortgage.

PennyMac Mortgage Implied Volatility

    
  0.95  
PennyMac Mortgage's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PennyMac Mortgage Investment stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PennyMac Mortgage's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PennyMac Mortgage stock will not fluctuate a lot when PennyMac Mortgage's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 13.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.15.

PennyMac Mortgage after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 13.47  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PennyMac Mortgage to cross-verify your projections.
At this time, PennyMac Mortgage's Payables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.05 in 2026, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (0.53) in 2026. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 78 M in 2026. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 76.3 M in 2026.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 PennyMac Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast PennyMac Mortgage's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in PennyMac Mortgage's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for PennyMac Mortgage stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current PennyMac Mortgage's open interest, investors have to compare it to PennyMac Mortgage's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of PennyMac Mortgage is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in PennyMac. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

PennyMac Mortgage Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine PennyMac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PennyMac using various technical indicators. When you analyze PennyMac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through PennyMac Mortgage price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

PennyMac Mortgage Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of January 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 13.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PennyMac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PennyMac Mortgage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PennyMac Mortgage Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PennyMac MortgagePennyMac Mortgage Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

PennyMac Mortgage Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PennyMac Mortgage's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PennyMac Mortgage's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.46 and 14.56, respectively. We have considered PennyMac Mortgage's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.73
13.01
Expected Value
14.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PennyMac Mortgage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PennyMac Mortgage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3935
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2156
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0174
SAESum of the absolute errors13.1498
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as PennyMac Mortgage Investment historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for PennyMac Mortgage

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PennyMac Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.9213.4715.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.7013.2514.80
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.3513.5715.06
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.380.410.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for PennyMac Mortgage

For every potential investor in PennyMac, whether a beginner or expert, PennyMac Mortgage's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PennyMac Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PennyMac. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PennyMac Mortgage's price trends.

PennyMac Mortgage Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PennyMac Mortgage stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PennyMac Mortgage could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PennyMac Mortgage by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PennyMac Mortgage Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PennyMac Mortgage's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PennyMac Mortgage's current price.

PennyMac Mortgage Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PennyMac Mortgage stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PennyMac Mortgage shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PennyMac Mortgage stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PennyMac Mortgage Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PennyMac Mortgage Risk Indicators

The analysis of PennyMac Mortgage's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PennyMac Mortgage's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pennymac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for PennyMac Stock Analysis

When running PennyMac Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure PennyMac Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PennyMac Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of PennyMac Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PennyMac Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PennyMac Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PennyMac Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.