First Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| THFF Stock | USD 63.24 0.76 1.22% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of First Financial's share price is at 56. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling First Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.367 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5933 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.5833 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.9167 | Wall Street Target Price 62 |
Using First Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Financial from the perspective of First Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Financial using First Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Financial's stock price.
First Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in First Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards First. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of First Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 55.6759 | Short Percent 0.0201 | Short Ratio 3.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 177.6 K | 50 Day MA 61.1396 |
First Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 64.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.35.First Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to First Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of First Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about First Financial.
First Financial Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
First Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 64.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.35. First Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 62.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With First Financial trading at USD 63.24, that is roughly USD 0.0257 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
First Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of First Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 64.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.56, mean absolute percentage error of 3.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Financial | First Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 63.09 and 66.65, respectively. We have considered First Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4354 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5631 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0258 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 95.3496 |
Predictive Modules for First Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Financial's historical news coverage. First Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.93 and 64.49, respectively. We have considered First Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.78 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
63.24 | 62.71 | 0.37 |
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First Financial Hype Timeline
First Financial is at this time traded for 63.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. First is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 62.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on First Financial is about 1459.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.28. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 307.51 M. Net Income was 47.27 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 250.76 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Financial to cross-verify your projections.First Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how First Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | (0.29) | 10 per month | 1.83 | 0.01 | 2.88 | (2.34) | 14.35 | |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.34 | (0.02) | 2.73 | (2.49) | 8.43 | |
| IBCP | Independent Bank | (0.01) | 7 per month | 1.17 | 0.05 | 2.57 | (2.57) | 7.82 | |
| CAC | Camden National | (0.68) | 8 per month | 1.28 | 0.15 | 3.78 | (2.43) | 10.30 | |
| BCAL | Southern California Bancorp | 0.40 | 8 per month | 1.15 | 0.06 | 2.27 | (1.97) | 7.59 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.47 | (0.01) | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| SMBK | SmartFinancial | 0.20 | 6 per month | 1.32 | 0.08 | 2.96 | (2.13) | 8.85 | |
| SPFI | South Plains Financial | (0.51) | 8 per month | 1.31 | 0.02 | 2.82 | (2.22) | 9.14 | |
| BOH | Bank of Hawaii | 1.77 | 8 per month | 1.16 | 0.13 | 2.58 | (1.71) | 8.71 | |
| MPB | Mid Penn Bancorp | 0.32 | 8 per month | 1.51 | 0.05 | 3.26 | (2.94) | 10.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Financial
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Financial's price trends.First Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.7 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Financial
The number of cover stories for First Financial depends on current market conditions and First Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Financial Short Properties
First Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 820.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in First Stock please use our How to Invest in First Financial guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Can Regional Banks industry sustain growth momentum? Does First have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Financial. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating First Financial demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.367 | Dividend Share 2.04 | Earnings Share 6.24 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.415 |
Investors evaluate First Financial using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating First Financial's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause First Financial's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, First Financial's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.