Trupanion Stock Forward View
| TRUP Stock | USD 32.34 0.77 2.44% |
Trupanion Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Trupanion's share price is approaching 37. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Trupanion, making its price go up or down. Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Trupanion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trupanion from the perspective of Trupanion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trupanion on the next trading day is expected to be 33.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.26. Trupanion after-hype prediction price | USD 32.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Trupanion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trupanion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trupanion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trupanion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trupanion Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trupanion on the next trading day is expected to be 33.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trupanion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trupanion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trupanion Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trupanion | Trupanion Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Trupanion Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trupanion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trupanion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.17 and 35.76, respectively. We have considered Trupanion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trupanion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trupanion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5114 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5616 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.2554 |
Predictive Modules for Trupanion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trupanion. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trupanion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trupanion After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trupanion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trupanion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trupanion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trupanion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trupanion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trupanion's historical news coverage. Trupanion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.04 and 34.64, respectively. We have considered Trupanion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trupanion is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trupanion is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trupanion Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trupanion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trupanion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trupanion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
32.34 | 32.34 | 0.00 |
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Trupanion Hype Timeline
Trupanion is at this time traded for 32.34. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.1. Trupanion is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.4%. %. The volatility of related hype on Trupanion is about 934.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.24. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Trupanion was at this time reported as 8.53. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trupanion to cross-verify your projections.Trupanion Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trupanion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trupanion's future price movements. Getting to know how Trupanion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trupanion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | 0.61 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.18 | (2.69) | 6.64 | |
| BWIN | The Baldwin Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.44 | (5.62) | 13.25 | |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares | 0.17 | 8 per month | 1.02 | 0.10 | 3.66 | (1.44) | 7.37 | |
| TY | Tri Continental Closed | (0.27) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.04 | (0.89) | 7.86 | |
| AGM | Federal Agricultural Mortgage | (2.04) | 9 per month | 1.46 | 0.07 | 2.86 | (2.85) | 9.39 | |
| QFIN | 360 Finance | (0.37) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.31 | (3.65) | 27.66 | |
| OFG | OFG Bancorp | (0.34) | 5 per month | 1.79 | 0.04 | 2.23 | (1.48) | 12.38 | |
| SLDE | Slide Insurance Holdings | 0.11 | 8 per month | 1.87 | 0.03 | 4.24 | (3.18) | 14.08 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | (0.33) | 12 per month | 1.57 | (0.04) | 2.83 | (2.30) | 8.73 | |
| PWP | Perella Weinberg Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.11 | 0.1 | 5.26 | (3.42) | 12.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trupanion
For every potential investor in Trupanion, whether a beginner or expert, Trupanion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trupanion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trupanion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trupanion's price trends.Trupanion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trupanion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trupanion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trupanion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trupanion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trupanion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trupanion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trupanion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trupanion entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trupanion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trupanion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trupanion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trupanion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trupanion
The number of cover stories for Trupanion depends on current market conditions and Trupanion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trupanion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trupanion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Trupanion Short Properties
Trupanion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trupanion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trupanion often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trupanion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trupanion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 42.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 307.4 M |
Additional Tools for Trupanion Stock Analysis
When running Trupanion's price analysis, check to measure Trupanion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trupanion is operating at the current time. Most of Trupanion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trupanion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trupanion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trupanion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.