Timberland Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TSBK Stock | USD 32.39 0.66 2.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Timberland Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.27. Timberland Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Timberland Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Timberland Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Timberland Bancorp fundamentals over time.
Timberland |
Timberland Bancorp Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Timberland Bancorp's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1998-03-31 | Previous Quarter 191.6 M | Current Value 169.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 134.1 M |
Timberland Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Timberland Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Timberland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Timberland Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Timberland Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Timberland Bancorp | Timberland Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Timberland Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Timberland Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Timberland Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.88 and 34.69, respectively. We have considered Timberland Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Timberland Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Timberland Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6508 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.611 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0201 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.2687 |
Predictive Modules for Timberland Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Timberland Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Timberland Bancorp
For every potential investor in Timberland, whether a beginner or expert, Timberland Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Timberland Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Timberland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Timberland Bancorp's price trends.View Timberland Bancorp Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Timberland Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Timberland Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Timberland Bancorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Timberland Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Timberland Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Timberland Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Timberland Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Timberland Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Timberland Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Timberland Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Timberland Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting timberland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Variance | 5.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Timberland Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Timberland Stock please use our How to buy in Timberland Stock guide.You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Timberland Bancorp. If investors know Timberland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Timberland Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 0.95 | Earnings Share 3.01 | Revenue Per Share 9.225 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Timberland Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Timberland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Timberland Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Timberland Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Timberland Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Timberland Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Timberland Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Timberland Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Timberland Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.