Univest Pennsylvania Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| UVSP Stock | USD 33.44 0.01 0.03% |
Univest Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Univest Pennsylvania's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Univest Pennsylvania's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Univest Pennsylvania fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Univest Pennsylvania's share price is at 54. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Univest Pennsylvania, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.413 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.715 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.0567 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.16 | Wall Street Target Price 33.3333 |
Using Univest Pennsylvania hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Univest Pennsylvania from the perspective of Univest Pennsylvania response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Univest Pennsylvania using Univest Pennsylvania's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Univest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Univest Pennsylvania's stock price.
Univest Pennsylvania Implied Volatility | 0.93 |
Univest Pennsylvania's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Univest Pennsylvania stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Univest Pennsylvania's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Univest Pennsylvania stock will not fluctuate a lot when Univest Pennsylvania's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Univest Pennsylvania on the next trading day is expected to be 33.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.06. Univest Pennsylvania after-hype prediction price | USD 33.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Univest Pennsylvania to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Univest contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Univest Pennsylvania will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0581% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Univest Pennsylvania trading at USD 33.44, that is roughly USD 0.0194 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Univest Pennsylvania's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Univest Pennsylvania options at the current volatility level of 0.93%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Univest Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Univest Pennsylvania's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Univest Pennsylvania's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Univest Pennsylvania stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Univest Pennsylvania's open interest, investors have to compare it to Univest Pennsylvania's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Univest Pennsylvania is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Univest. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Univest Pennsylvania Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Univest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Univest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Univest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Univest Pennsylvania Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Univest Pennsylvania on the next trading day is expected to be 33.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Univest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Univest Pennsylvania's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Univest Pennsylvania Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Univest Pennsylvania | Univest Pennsylvania Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Univest Pennsylvania Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Univest Pennsylvania's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Univest Pennsylvania's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.83 and 35.05, respectively. We have considered Univest Pennsylvania's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Univest Pennsylvania stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Univest Pennsylvania stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3249 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1014 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4418 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0135 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.065 |
Predictive Modules for Univest Pennsylvania
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Univest Pennsylvania. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Univest Pennsylvania's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Univest Pennsylvania After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Univest Pennsylvania at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Univest Pennsylvania or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Univest Pennsylvania, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Univest Pennsylvania Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Univest Pennsylvania's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Univest Pennsylvania's historical news coverage. Univest Pennsylvania's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.85 and 35.07, respectively. We have considered Univest Pennsylvania's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Univest Pennsylvania is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Univest Pennsylvania is based on 3 months time horizon.
Univest Pennsylvania Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Univest Pennsylvania is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Univest Pennsylvania backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Univest Pennsylvania, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.61 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
33.44 | 33.46 | 0.06 |
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Univest Pennsylvania Hype Timeline
Univest Pennsylvania is at this time traded for 33.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Univest is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 33.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Univest Pennsylvania is about 1788.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.42. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 500.41 M. Net Income was 75.93 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 309.14 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Univest Pennsylvania to cross-verify your projections.Univest Pennsylvania Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Univest Pennsylvania's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Univest Pennsylvania's future price movements. Getting to know how Univest Pennsylvania's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Univest Pennsylvania may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FMBH | First Mid Illinois | 0.14 | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.09 | 3.31 | (2.58) | 9.25 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 0.43 | 9 per month | 0.91 | 0.12 | 2.73 | (1.57) | 5.24 | |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Bank | (0.16) | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.24 | 3.60 | (2.09) | 8.06 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | (0.18) | 10 per month | 0.96 | 0.1 | 3.23 | (1.92) | 12.14 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | (1.79) | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.03 | 3.16 | (2.37) | 9.50 | |
| DCOM | Dime Community Bancshares | 0.38 | 7 per month | 1.86 | 0.07 | 3.51 | (3.10) | 10.13 | |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial | 1.18 | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.10 | 3.68 | (2.40) | 10.36 | |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group | 0.35 | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.15 | 3.39 | (2.70) | 43.86 | |
| CFFN | Capitol Federal Financial | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.44 | 0.05 | 2.80 | (2.44) | 8.42 | |
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | (1.26) | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.49 | (2.36) | 18.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Univest Pennsylvania
For every potential investor in Univest, whether a beginner or expert, Univest Pennsylvania's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Univest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Univest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Univest Pennsylvania's price trends.Univest Pennsylvania Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Univest Pennsylvania stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Univest Pennsylvania could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Univest Pennsylvania by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Univest Pennsylvania Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Univest Pennsylvania stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Univest Pennsylvania shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Univest Pennsylvania stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Univest Pennsylvania entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 33.44 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 33.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.38 |
Univest Pennsylvania Risk Indicators
The analysis of Univest Pennsylvania's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Univest Pennsylvania's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting univest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Univest Pennsylvania
The number of cover stories for Univest Pennsylvania depends on current market conditions and Univest Pennsylvania's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Univest Pennsylvania is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Univest Pennsylvania's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Univest Pennsylvania Short Properties
Univest Pennsylvania's future price predictability will typically decrease when Univest Pennsylvania's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Univest Pennsylvania often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Univest Pennsylvania's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Univest Pennsylvania's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 337.1 M |
Additional Tools for Univest Stock Analysis
When running Univest Pennsylvania's price analysis, check to measure Univest Pennsylvania's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Univest Pennsylvania is operating at the current time. Most of Univest Pennsylvania's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Univest Pennsylvania's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Univest Pennsylvania's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Univest Pennsylvania to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.