Univest Pennsylvania Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

UVSP Stock  USD 33.44  0.01  0.03%   
Univest Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Univest Pennsylvania's share price is at 53. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Univest Pennsylvania, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Univest Pennsylvania's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Univest Pennsylvania, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Univest Pennsylvania hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Univest Pennsylvania from the perspective of Univest Pennsylvania response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Univest Pennsylvania on the next trading day is expected to be 34.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.18.

Univest Pennsylvania after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 33.44  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Univest Pennsylvania to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Univest Stock, please use our How to Invest in Univest Pennsylvania guide.

Univest Pennsylvania Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Univest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Univest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Univest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Univest Pennsylvania price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Univest Pennsylvania Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Univest Pennsylvania on the next trading day is expected to be 34.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.18.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Univest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Univest Pennsylvania's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Univest Pennsylvania Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Univest Pennsylvania  Univest Pennsylvania Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Univest Pennsylvania Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Univest Pennsylvania's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Univest Pennsylvania's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.08 and 36.36, respectively. We have considered Univest Pennsylvania's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
33.44
34.72
Expected Value
36.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Univest Pennsylvania stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Univest Pennsylvania stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3929
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9538
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0292
SAESum of the absolute errors58.182
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Univest Pennsylvania historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Univest Pennsylvania

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Univest Pennsylvania. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Univest Pennsylvania's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.8033.4435.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.8734.5136.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
32.0533.2834.52
Details

Univest Pennsylvania After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Univest Pennsylvania at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Univest Pennsylvania or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Univest Pennsylvania, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Univest Pennsylvania Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Univest Pennsylvania's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Univest Pennsylvania's historical news coverage. Univest Pennsylvania's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.80 and 35.08, respectively. We have considered Univest Pennsylvania's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
33.44
33.44
After-hype Price
35.08
Upside
Univest Pennsylvania is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Univest Pennsylvania is based on 3 months time horizon.

Univest Pennsylvania Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Univest Pennsylvania is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Univest Pennsylvania backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Univest Pennsylvania, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
1.64
  0.07 
  0.01 
3 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
33.44
33.44
0.00 
431.58  
Notes

Univest Pennsylvania Hype Timeline

Univest Pennsylvania is at this time traded for 33.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Univest is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Univest Pennsylvania is about 2157.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.45. About 80.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.02. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Univest Pennsylvania last dividend was issued on the 5th of November 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 2nd of May 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Univest Pennsylvania to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Univest Stock, please use our How to Invest in Univest Pennsylvania guide.

Univest Pennsylvania Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Univest Pennsylvania's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Univest Pennsylvania's future price movements. Getting to know how Univest Pennsylvania's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Univest Pennsylvania may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FMBHFirst Mid Illinois 0.00 0 per month 1.19  0.10  3.31 (2.58) 9.25 
SBSISouthside Bancshares 0.00 0 per month 0.97  0.11  2.73 (1.57) 8.89 
AMALAmalgamated Bank 0.00 0 per month 1.13  0.23  3.60 (2.09) 7.78 
HAFCHanmi Financial 0.38 3 per month 1.04  0.01  3.02 (1.92) 7.23 
BHRBBurke Herbert Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.65  0.01  3.16 (2.37) 9.50 
DCOMDime Community Bancshares 0.00 0 per month 1.32  0.13  3.51 (2.56) 11.73 
TMPTompkins Financial 0.38 6 per month 1.48  0.11  3.68 (2.40) 10.36 
MOFGMidWestOne Financial Group 0.00 0 per month 1.39  0.12  3.03 (2.70) 13.04 
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.46  0.06  2.80 (2.44) 8.42 
FSUNFirstSun Capital Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 1.88  0.07  3.49 (1.89) 10.98 

Other Forecasting Options for Univest Pennsylvania

For every potential investor in Univest, whether a beginner or expert, Univest Pennsylvania's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Univest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Univest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Univest Pennsylvania's price trends.

Univest Pennsylvania Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Univest Pennsylvania stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Univest Pennsylvania could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Univest Pennsylvania by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Univest Pennsylvania Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Univest Pennsylvania stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Univest Pennsylvania shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Univest Pennsylvania stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Univest Pennsylvania entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Univest Pennsylvania Risk Indicators

The analysis of Univest Pennsylvania's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Univest Pennsylvania's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting univest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Univest Pennsylvania

The number of cover stories for Univest Pennsylvania depends on current market conditions and Univest Pennsylvania's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Univest Pennsylvania is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Univest Pennsylvania's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Univest Pennsylvania Short Properties

Univest Pennsylvania's future price predictability will typically decrease when Univest Pennsylvania's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Univest Pennsylvania often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Univest Pennsylvania's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Univest Pennsylvania's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding29.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments337.1 M

Additional Tools for Univest Stock Analysis

When running Univest Pennsylvania's price analysis, check to measure Univest Pennsylvania's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Univest Pennsylvania is operating at the current time. Most of Univest Pennsylvania's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Univest Pennsylvania's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Univest Pennsylvania's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Univest Pennsylvania to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.