Valero Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VLO Stock | USD 187.09 0.20 0.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 180.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 186.29. Valero Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Valero Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Valero Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Valero Energy fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Valero Energy's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.096 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.4276 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.9924 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.1693 | Wall Street Target Price 189.7778 |
Using Valero Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valero Energy from the perspective of Valero Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valero Energy using Valero Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valero using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valero Energy's stock price.
Valero Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long Valero Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valero Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valero Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 151.3398 | Short Percent 0.0518 | Short Ratio 4.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.8 M | 50 Day MA 175.4036 |
Valero Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Valero Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valero. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valero can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valero Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Valero Energy Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Valero Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valero Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valero Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valero Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valero Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 180.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 186.29. Valero Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 187.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valero Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Valero contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Valero Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Valero Energy trading at USD 187.09, that is roughly USD 0.0725 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Valero Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Valero Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Valero Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Valero Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Valero Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Valero Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Valero Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Valero Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Valero Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Valero. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Valero Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valero price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valero using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valero charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Valero Energy Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Valero Energy's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 4.5 B | Current Value 4.8 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.9 B |
Valero Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 180.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.05, mean absolute percentage error of 14.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 186.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valero Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valero Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valero Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Valero Energy | Valero Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Valero Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valero Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valero Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 178.69 and 182.97, respectively. We have considered Valero Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valero Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valero Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8084 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0539 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 186.2895 |
Predictive Modules for Valero Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valero Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Valero Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valero Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valero Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valero Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valero Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valero Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valero Energy's historical news coverage. Valero Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 184.93 and 189.25, respectively. We have considered Valero Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valero Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valero Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valero Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valero Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valero Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valero Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.14 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
187.09 | 187.09 | 0.00 |
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Valero Energy Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Valero Energy is traded for 187.09. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.13. Valero is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 138.96%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Valero Energy is about 239.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 187.22. About 85.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Valero Energy was at this time reported as 77.88. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of February 2026. Valero Energy had 1094:1000 split on the 2nd of May 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valero Energy to cross-verify your projections.Valero Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valero Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valero Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Valero Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valero Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSX | Phillips 66 | 0.78 | 18 per month | 1.67 | 0.04 | 3.25 | (2.38) | 10.23 | |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corp | 4.90 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.11 | (3.66) | 10.07 | |
| TRP | TC Energy Corp | 0.41 | 10 per month | 0.81 | 0.07 | 2.13 | (1.48) | 5.93 | |
| MPLX | MPLX LP | 0.78 | 8 per month | 0.85 | 0.12 | 1.73 | (1.73) | 4.74 | |
| E | Eni SpA ADR | (0.03) | 6 per month | 1.10 | 0.12 | 2.17 | (2.26) | 6.47 | |
| KMI | Kinder Morgan | 0.42 | 8 per month | 1.33 | 0.04 | 2.01 | (1.73) | 6.34 | |
| SLB | Schlumberger NV | 0.53 | 8 per month | 1.22 | 0.24 | 4.46 | (2.89) | 11.84 | |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | 0.78 | 4 per month | 0.68 | 0.06 | 2.22 | (1.33) | 3.94 | |
| SU | Suncor Energy | 1.35 | 12 per month | 0.71 | 0.27 | 2.77 | (1.62) | 7.59 | |
| EOG | EOG Resources | (1.00) | 10 per month | 1.35 | (0.02) | 2.49 | (2.27) | 6.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Valero Energy
For every potential investor in Valero, whether a beginner or expert, Valero Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valero Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valero. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valero Energy's price trends.Valero Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valero Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valero Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valero Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valero Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valero Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valero Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valero Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valero Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Valero Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valero Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valero Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valero stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Variance | 5.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Valero Energy
The number of cover stories for Valero Energy depends on current market conditions and Valero Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valero Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valero Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valero Energy Short Properties
Valero Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valero Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valero Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valero Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valero Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 322 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valero Energy to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valero Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.096 | Dividend Share 4.46 | Earnings Share 4.81 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Valero Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valero Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valero Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.