Valero Energy Stock Forward View - Price Action Indicator

VLO Stock  USD 194.14  2.07  1.05%   
Valero Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Valero Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Valero Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Valero Energy fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Valero Energy's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Valero Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Valero Energy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Valero Energy's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.196
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.1483
EPS Estimate Current Year
12.1544
EPS Estimate Next Year
12.695
Wall Street Target Price
197
Using Valero Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valero Energy from the perspective of Valero Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valero Energy using Valero Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valero using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valero Energy's stock price.

Valero Energy Short Interest

An investor who is long Valero Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valero Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valero Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
154.3807
Short Percent
0.0495
Short Ratio
3.52
Shares Short Prior Month
12.4 M
50 Day MA
176.4658

Valero Relative Strength Index

Valero Energy Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Valero Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valero. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valero can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valero Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Valero Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Valero Energy.

Valero Energy Implied Volatility

    
  0.45  
Valero Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valero Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valero Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valero Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valero Energy's options are near their expiration.

Valero Energy after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 194.14  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valero Energy to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Valero contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Valero Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-03-27 option contract. With Valero Energy trading at USD 194.14, that is roughly USD 0.0546 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Valero Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Valero Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-27 Valero Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Valero Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Valero Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Valero Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Valero Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Valero Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Valero Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Valero. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Valero Energy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Valero price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valero using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valero charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Valero Energy has current Price Action Indicator of 0.61. Price Action indicator evaluates an asset for a given trading period using the following formula: ((close - open) + (close - high) + (close - low)) / 2. This indicator is consistent with the interpretation of Japanese candlestick patterns.
Check Valero Energy VolatilityBacktest Valero EnergyInformation Ratio  

Valero Energy Trading Date Momentum

On February 05 2026 Valero Energy was traded for  194.14  at the closing time. Highest Valero Energy's price during the trading hours was 194.88  and the lowest price during the day was  190.11 . The net volume was 2.4 M. The overall trading history on the 5th of February did not result in any price rise and fall. The trading price change to current price is 0.78% .
Price Action Indicator (or PAIN) was developed by Michael B. Geraty and published in 'Futures' magazine in August 1997.
Compare Valero Energy to competition

Other Forecasting Options for Valero Energy

For every potential investor in Valero, whether a beginner or expert, Valero Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valero Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valero. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valero Energy's price trends.

Valero Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valero Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valero Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valero Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Valero Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valero Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valero Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valero Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valero Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Valero Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Valero Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valero Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valero stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Valero Energy

The number of cover stories for Valero Energy depends on current market conditions and Valero Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valero Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valero Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Valero Energy Short Properties

Valero Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valero Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valero Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valero Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valero Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding309 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.7 B
When determining whether Valero Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valero Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valero Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valero Energy Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valero Energy to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.
You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Will Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector continue expanding? Could Valero diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Valero Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.196
Dividend Share
4.52
Earnings Share
7.44
Revenue Per Share
397.045
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.039
The market value of Valero Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valero Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Valero Energy's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.