XPO Logistics Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| XPO Stock | USD 148.23 0.37 0.25% |
XPO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although XPO Logistics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of XPO Logistics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of XPO Logistics fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of XPO Logistics' share price is at 53. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling XPO Logistics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.856 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.6226 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.263 | Wall Street Target Price 156.0833 |
Using XPO Logistics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of XPO Logistics from the perspective of XPO Logistics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards XPO Logistics using XPO Logistics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards XPO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of XPO Logistics' stock price.
XPO Logistics Short Interest
An investor who is long XPO Logistics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about XPO Logistics and may potentially protect profits, hedge XPO Logistics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 128.7352 | Short Percent 0.11 | Short Ratio 6.27 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.5 M | 50 Day MA 141.978 |
XPO Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of XPO Logistics on the next trading day is expected to be 148.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 170.07.XPO Logistics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to XPO Logistics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in XPO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding XPO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around XPO Logistics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of XPO Logistics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about XPO Logistics.
XPO Logistics Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
XPO Logistics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of XPO Logistics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if XPO Logistics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that XPO Logistics stock will not fluctuate a lot when XPO Logistics' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of XPO Logistics on the next trading day is expected to be 148.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 170.07. XPO Logistics after-hype prediction price | USD 149.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of XPO Logistics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current XPO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that XPO Logistics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With XPO Logistics trading at USD 148.23, that is roughly USD 0.0426 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating XPO Logistics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring XPO Logistics options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 XPO Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast XPO Logistics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in XPO Logistics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for XPO Logistics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current XPO Logistics' open interest, investors have to compare it to XPO Logistics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of XPO Logistics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in XPO. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
XPO Logistics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine XPO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for XPO using various technical indicators. When you analyze XPO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
XPO Logistics Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of XPO Logistics on the next trading day is expected to be 148.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.88, mean absolute percentage error of 13.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 170.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict XPO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that XPO Logistics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
XPO Logistics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest XPO Logistics | XPO Logistics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
XPO Logistics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting XPO Logistics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. XPO Logistics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 145.92 and 150.91, respectively. We have considered XPO Logistics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of XPO Logistics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent XPO Logistics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0249 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1809 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.8826 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 170.075 |
Predictive Modules for XPO Logistics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as XPO Logistics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.XPO Logistics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of XPO Logistics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in XPO Logistics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of XPO Logistics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
XPO Logistics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting XPO Logistics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on XPO Logistics' historical news coverage. XPO Logistics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 146.51 and 151.53, respectively. We have considered XPO Logistics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
XPO Logistics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of XPO Logistics is based on 3 months time horizon.
XPO Logistics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as XPO Logistics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading XPO Logistics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with XPO Logistics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.49 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
148.23 | 149.02 | 0.28 |
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XPO Logistics Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January XPO Logistics is traded for 148.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.4, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.48. XPO is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 149.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 106.87%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on XPO Logistics is about 87.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 147.75. The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.07 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 387 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.45 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of XPO Logistics to cross-verify your projections.XPO Logistics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to XPO Logistics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict XPO Logistics' future price movements. Getting to know how XPO Logistics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how XPO Logistics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 4.57 | 10 per month | 0.86 | 0.15 | 3.32 | (1.54) | 6.61 | |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.75 | 0.19 | 2.46 | (2.00) | 13.29 | |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 4.64 | 10 per month | 0.59 | 0.18 | 2.87 | (1.70) | 22.91 | |
| ZTO | ZTO Express | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.96 | 0.1 | 2.73 | (1.81) | 7.33 | |
| MTZ | MasTec Inc | (16.66) | 9 per month | 2.31 | 0.13 | 4.38 | (4.58) | 13.07 | |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | 0.47 | 7 per month | 1.68 | 0.12 | 4.42 | (2.83) | 9.54 | |
| ULS | UL Solutions | (1.23) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.70 | (3.28) | 21.27 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 1.74 | 8 per month | 1.16 | 0.16 | 3.61 | (2.14) | 16.03 | |
| TRU | TransUnion | 1.84 | 11 per month | 1.99 | (0.01) | 3.72 | (3.03) | 9.21 | |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology | (23.72) | 9 per month | 1.73 | 0.13 | 5.30 | (2.70) | 28.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for XPO Logistics
For every potential investor in XPO, whether a beginner or expert, XPO Logistics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. XPO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in XPO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying XPO Logistics' price trends.XPO Logistics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with XPO Logistics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of XPO Logistics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing XPO Logistics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
XPO Logistics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how XPO Logistics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading XPO Logistics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying XPO Logistics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify XPO Logistics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 23013.29 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.12) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 148.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 148.63 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.78) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.37) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.61 |
XPO Logistics Risk Indicators
The analysis of XPO Logistics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in XPO Logistics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xpo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Variance | 7.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for XPO Logistics
The number of cover stories for XPO Logistics depends on current market conditions and XPO Logistics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that XPO Logistics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about XPO Logistics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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XPO Logistics Short Properties
XPO Logistics' future price predictability will typically decrease when XPO Logistics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of XPO Logistics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential XPO Logistics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. XPO Logistics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 120 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 246 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of XPO Logistics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in XPO Stock, please use our How to Invest in XPO Logistics guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Air Freight & Logistics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of XPO Logistics. If investors know XPO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about XPO Logistics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share 2.78 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.028 | Return On Assets |
The market value of XPO Logistics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of XPO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of XPO Logistics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is XPO Logistics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because XPO Logistics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect XPO Logistics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between XPO Logistics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if XPO Logistics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, XPO Logistics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.