First Commonwealth Financial Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| FCF Stock | USD 18.74 0.17 0.92% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your conservative risk appetite, our recommendation regarding First Commonwealth Financial is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides First Commonwealth buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding FCF positions.
Check out First Commonwealth Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as First and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. First Commonwealth Financial. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators.
First |
Execute First Commonwealth Buy or Sell Advice
The First recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on First Commonwealth Financial. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in First Commonwealth Financial or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute First Commonwealth's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Modest | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
First Commonwealth Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| First Commonwealth has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: First Commonwealth Financial Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Revenues Beat Expectations, EPS Lags |
First Commonwealth Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of First Commonwealth's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of First Commonwealth's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of First Commonwealth daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use First Commonwealth Financial price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of First Commonwealth returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for First Commonwealth.
| Mean Return | 0.24 | Value At Risk | -2.63 | Potential Upside | 3.69 | Standard Deviation | 2.60 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of First Commonwealth historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
First Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 1.3 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-06-30 | 1.2 M | Waldron, Lp | 2024-06-30 | 1.2 M | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2024-06-30 | 1 M | First Commonwealth Financial Corp | 2024-09-30 | 925.6 K | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2024-06-30 | 847.4 K | Amvescap Plc. | 2024-06-30 | 806.5 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-06-30 | 726.7 K | Thrivent Financial For Lutherans | 2024-09-30 | 612.8 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 14.8 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 11.8 M |
First Commonwealth Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 22.9M | 234.7M | 38.8M | (241.1M) | (7.3M) | (6.9M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 90.3M | 98.1M | 154.4M | 140.2M | 140.7M | 72.6M | |
| Depreciation | 10.4M | 11.7M | 11.4M | 10.6M | 18.2M | 9.5M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (19.8M) | (2.8M) | 16.7M | 24.9M | (12.5M) | (11.9M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 39.4M | 43.0M | 43.6M | 44.6M | 50.8M | 32.8M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 17.4M | 7.6M | 10.6M | 11.2M | 22.0M | 23.1M | |
| Net Income | 105.3M | 73.4M | 138.3M | 128.2M | 157.1M | 164.9M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 121.9M | 356.6M | 395.4M | 154.2M | 147.0M | 115.9M | |
| Change To Netincome | 6.7M | 27.9M | 6.4M | 16.3M | 18.8M | 17.2M | |
| Investments | (199.5M) | (482.5M) | (569.8M) | (588.8M) | (609.3M) | (578.9M) | |
| Change Receivables | (2.6M) | 423K | (10.7M) | 5.9M | 5.3M | 5.6M | |
| Net Borrowings | (471.0M) | (85.6M) | (30.2M) | 233.2M | 209.9M | 220.3M |
First Commonwealth Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to First Commonwealth or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that First Commonwealth's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a First stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
First Commonwealth Volatility Alert
First Commonwealth Financial has relatively low volatility with skewness of 3.71 and kurtosis of 21.8. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure First Commonwealth's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact First Commonwealth's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.First Commonwealth Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing First Commonwealth's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze First Commonwealth's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between First Commonwealth and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as First Commonwealth or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of First Commonwealth's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Commonwealth by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare First Commonwealth to competition |
| Fundamentals | First Commonwealth | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.11 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0129 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.33 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.41 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 2.04 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 101.78 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.90 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 76.23 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.03 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 13.26 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.34 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 4.14 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 467.27 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 389.48 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 215.74 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 157.06 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 180.77 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.94 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 833.92 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 8.13 % | 48.70 % |
| Book Value Per Share | 13.83 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 162.76 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.15 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.48 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 3.17 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 18.67 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1.5 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.82 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.89 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 11.48 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 881.11 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.03 % | |
| Five Year Return | 3.16 % |
Note: Acquisition by Mccuen Michael P of 2919 shares of First Commonwealth at 16.99 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
First Commonwealth Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as First . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About First Commonwealth Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell First Commonwealth Financial? Buying financial instruments such as First Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out First Commonwealth Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Commonwealth. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Commonwealth listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Dividend Share 0.515 | Earnings Share 1.48 | Revenue Per Share 4.475 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of First Commonwealth is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Commonwealth's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Commonwealth's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Commonwealth's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Commonwealth's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Commonwealth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Commonwealth is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Commonwealth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.