Commerce Bancshares Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CBSH Stock | USD 73.75 0.13 0.18% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Commerce Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 73.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.55. Commerce Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Commerce Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Commerce |
Commerce Bancshares Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Commerce Bancshares' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-06-30 | Previous Quarter 2.5 B | Current Value 3.1 B | Quarterly Volatility 606 M |
Commerce Bancshares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Commerce Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 73.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commerce Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commerce Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Commerce Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Commerce Bancshares | Commerce Bancshares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Commerce Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Commerce Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commerce Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.61 and 75.32, respectively. We have considered Commerce Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commerce Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commerce Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6979 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.009 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.549 |
Predictive Modules for Commerce Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commerce Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Commerce Bancshares
For every potential investor in Commerce, whether a beginner or expert, Commerce Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commerce Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commerce. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commerce Bancshares' price trends.View Commerce Bancshares Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commerce Bancshares Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Commerce Bancshares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Commerce Bancshares' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Commerce Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commerce Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commerce Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commerce Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Commerce Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3633.15 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.12) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 73.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 73.81 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.16) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 79.52 |
Commerce Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Commerce Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commerce Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commerce stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Variance | 3.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Commerce Bancshares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Commerce Bancshares' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Commerce Bancshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Commerce Bancshares Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commerce Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. If investors know Commerce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.162 | Dividend Share 1.067 | Earnings Share 3.84 | Revenue Per Share 12.557 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 |
The market value of Commerce Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commerce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commerce Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commerce Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commerce Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commerce Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commerce Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commerce Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commerce Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.