Commerce Bancshares Stock Price Patterns
| CBSH Stock | USD 52.64 0.23 0.44% |
Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.06 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.975 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.1386 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.4289 | Wall Street Target Price 61.75 |
Using Commerce Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commerce Bancshares from the perspective of Commerce Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Commerce Bancshares using Commerce Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Commerce using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Commerce Bancshares' stock price.
Commerce Bancshares Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Commerce Bancshares' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Commerce. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Commerce Bancshares stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 56.343 | Short Percent 0.0333 | Short Ratio 4.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.4 M | 50 Day MA 52.6716 |
Commerce Bancshares Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Commerce Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Commerce. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Commerce can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Commerce Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Commerce Bancshares' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Commerce Bancshares.
Commerce Bancshares Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
Commerce Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Commerce Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Commerce Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Commerce Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when Commerce Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Commerce Bancshares to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Commerce because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Commerce Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 52.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Commerce contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Commerce Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Commerce Bancshares trading at USD 52.64, that is roughly USD 0.0257 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Commerce Bancshares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Commerce Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Commerce Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commerce Bancshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Commerce Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commerce Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commerce Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Commerce Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Commerce Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commerce Bancshares' historical news coverage. Commerce Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.25 and 53.93, respectively. We have considered Commerce Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Commerce Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commerce Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Commerce Bancshares Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commerce Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commerce Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commerce Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.34 | 0.05 | 0.44 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
52.64 | 52.59 | 0.09 |
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Commerce Bancshares Hype Timeline
Commerce Bancshares is currently traded for 52.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.44. Commerce is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 52.59. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Commerce Bancshares is about 33.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.20. About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Commerce Bancshares was currently reported as 27.58. The company last dividend was issued on the 2nd of December 2025. Commerce Bancshares had 105:100 split on the 2nd of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Commerce Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Commerce Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Commerce Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Commerce Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commerce Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CADE | Cadence Bancorp | 1.42 | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0.12 | 3.62 | (2.23) | 10.35 | |
| BOKF | BOK Financial | 4.45 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.19 | 3.17 | (1.26) | 7.41 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | (45.36) | 7 per month | 1.53 | 0.04 | 2.99 | (2.01) | 8.67 | |
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp | (1.28) | 2 per month | 1.99 | (0) | 2.93 | (2.49) | 9.63 | |
| VLY | Valley National Bancorp | 0.15 | 10 per month | 1.32 | 0.11 | 3.26 | (2.20) | 8.87 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | 0.59 | 10 per month | 0.86 | 0.09 | 3.15 | (1.48) | 7.64 | |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares | (0.84) | 10 per month | 1.68 | 0.05 | 2.92 | (1.37) | 11.82 | |
| UMBF | UMB Financial | 0.41 | 11 per month | 1.09 | 0.08 | 3.61 | (1.53) | 6.43 | |
| BPOP | Popular | 0.45 | 12 per month | 1.42 | 0.12 | 2.90 | (2.44) | 6.73 | |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 0.46 | 10 per month | 1.19 | 0.11 | 2.93 | (1.98) | 7.78 |
Commerce Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Commerce price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commerce using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commerce charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Commerce Bancshares Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Commerce Bancshares stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Commerce Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Commerce Bancshares based on analysis of Commerce Bancshares hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Commerce Bancshares's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Commerce Bancshares's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0194 | 0.0173 | 0.02 | 0.0239 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.53 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.54 |
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Complementary Tools for Commerce Stock analysis
When running Commerce Bancshares' price analysis, check to measure Commerce Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commerce Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Commerce Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commerce Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commerce Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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