Federal Agricultural Mortgage Stock Price Patterns
| AGM Stock | USD 182.54 5.23 2.95% |
Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.15 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.5433 | EPS Estimate Current Year 17.5767 | EPS Estimate Next Year 19.2467 | Wall Street Target Price 226.6667 |
Using Federal Agricultural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage from the perspective of Federal Agricultural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Federal Agricultural using Federal Agricultural's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Federal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Federal Agricultural's stock price.
Federal Agricultural Short Interest
An investor who is long Federal Agricultural may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Federal Agricultural and may potentially protect profits, hedge Federal Agricultural with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 179.1297 | Short Percent 0.0136 | Short Ratio 2.65 | Shares Short Prior Month 262.7 K | 50 Day MA 174.7266 |
Federal Agricultural Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Federal Agricultural's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Federal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Federal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Federal Agricultural Mortgage. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Federal Agricultural's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Federal Agricultural.
Federal Agricultural Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
Federal Agricultural's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Federal Agricultural Mortgage stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Federal Agricultural's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Federal Agricultural stock will not fluctuate a lot when Federal Agricultural's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Federal Agricultural to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Federal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Federal Agricultural after-hype prediction price | USD 182.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Federal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Federal Agricultural Mortgage will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Federal Agricultural trading at USD 182.54, that is roughly USD 0.0536 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Federal Agricultural's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Federal Agricultural Mortgage options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Federal Agricultural Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Federal Agricultural After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Federal Agricultural at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federal Agricultural or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Federal Agricultural, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Federal Agricultural Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Federal Agricultural's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federal Agricultural's historical news coverage. Federal Agricultural's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 181.43 and 184.43, respectively. We have considered Federal Agricultural's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Federal Agricultural is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federal Agricultural is based on 3 months time horizon.
Federal Agricultural Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Federal Agricultural is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federal Agricultural backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federal Agricultural, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.50 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
182.54 | 182.93 | 0.21 |
|
Federal Agricultural Hype Timeline
On the 11th of February 2026 Federal Agricultural is traded for 182.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.39, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Federal is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 182.93 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 57.69%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Federal Agricultural is about 2586.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 182.53. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.62 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 207.19 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 377.95 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Federal Agricultural Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Federal Agricultural Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Federal Agricultural's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federal Agricultural's future price movements. Getting to know how Federal Agricultural's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federal Agricultural may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FINV | FinVolution Group | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.99 | (3.87) | 16.06 | |
| QFIN | 360 Finance | 0.34 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.31 | (3.53) | 17.07 | |
| OFG | OFG Bancorp | (0.95) | 10 per month | 1.77 | 0 | 2.23 | (1.48) | 12.38 | |
| CHCO | City Holding | 0.86 | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.01 | 1.91 | (1.54) | 6.66 | |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares | (0.23) | 10 per month | 1.00 | 0.07 | 3.63 | (1.40) | 7.40 | |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares | (1.15) | 10 per month | 1.16 | 0.12 | 2.95 | (2.36) | 13.07 | |
| TY | Tri Continental Closed | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.04 | (0.89) | 7.86 | |
| LC | LendingClub Corp | 0.70 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.96 | (5.96) | 22.74 | |
| MSDL | Morgan Stanley Direct | (0.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.31 | (3.02) | 6.37 | |
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.09 | (3.12) | 6.62 |
Federal Agricultural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Federal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Federal Agricultural Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Federal Agricultural stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Federal Agricultural Mortgage, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Federal Agricultural based on analysis of Federal Agricultural hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Federal Agricultural's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Federal Agricultural's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0361 | 0.0402 | 0.0462 | 0.0638 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.46 | 1.32 | 1.19 | 1.06 |
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Prophet is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Federal Agricultural Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Will Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sector continue expanding? Could Federal diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Federal Agricultural. If investors know Federal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Federal Agricultural data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.15 | Dividend Share 5.9 | Earnings Share 17.55 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.111 |
Investors evaluate Federal Agricultural using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Federal Agricultural's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Federal Agricultural's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Federal Agricultural's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Federal Agricultural represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Federal Agricultural's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.