Federal Agricultural Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AGM Stock | USD 170.13 2.61 1.56% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 168.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.49. Federal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Federal Agricultural's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Federal Agricultural's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Federal Agricultural fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength indicator of Federal Agricultural's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.15 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.5433 | EPS Estimate Current Year 17.5767 | EPS Estimate Next Year 19.2467 | Wall Street Target Price 226.6667 |
Using Federal Agricultural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage from the perspective of Federal Agricultural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Federal Agricultural using Federal Agricultural's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Federal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Federal Agricultural's stock price.
Federal Agricultural Short Interest
An investor who is long Federal Agricultural may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Federal Agricultural and may potentially protect profits, hedge Federal Agricultural with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 179.4957 | Short Percent 0.0136 | Short Ratio 3.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 231.6 K | 50 Day MA 172.3674 |
Federal Agricultural Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Federal Agricultural's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Federal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Federal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Federal Agricultural Mortgage. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Federal Agricultural's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Federal Agricultural.
Federal Agricultural Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
Federal Agricultural's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Federal Agricultural Mortgage stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Federal Agricultural's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Federal Agricultural stock will not fluctuate a lot when Federal Agricultural's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 168.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.49. Federal Agricultural after-hype prediction price | USD 170.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federal Agricultural to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Federal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Federal Agricultural's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Federal Agricultural's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Federal Agricultural stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Federal Agricultural's open interest, investors have to compare it to Federal Agricultural's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Federal Agricultural is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Federal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Federal Agricultural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Federal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Federal Agricultural Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Federal Agricultural's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1992-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1 B | Current Value 884.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 371.7 M |
Federal Agricultural Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of January 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 168.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.99, mean absolute percentage error of 6.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federal Agricultural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Federal Agricultural Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Federal Agricultural | Federal Agricultural Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Federal Agricultural Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Federal Agricultural's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federal Agricultural's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 167.38 and 170.42, respectively. We have considered Federal Agricultural's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federal Agricultural stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federal Agricultural stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.8391 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9918 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.4926 |
Predictive Modules for Federal Agricultural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federal Agricultural. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Federal Agricultural
For every potential investor in Federal, whether a beginner or expert, Federal Agricultural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federal Agricultural's price trends.Federal Agricultural Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federal Agricultural stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federal Agricultural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federal Agricultural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Federal Agricultural Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Federal Agricultural's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Federal Agricultural's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Federal Agricultural Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federal Agricultural stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federal Agricultural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federal Agricultural stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Federal Agricultural Mortgage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Federal Agricultural Risk Indicators
The analysis of Federal Agricultural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federal Agricultural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.32) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Federal Agricultural. If investors know Federal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Federal Agricultural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.15 | Dividend Share 5.9 | Earnings Share 17.56 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.111 |
The market value of Federal Agricultural is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Federal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Federal Agricultural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Federal Agricultural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Federal Agricultural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Federal Agricultural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federal Agricultural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Federal Agricultural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federal Agricultural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.