First Business Financial Stock Price Prediction
| FBIZ Stock | USD 49.55 0.77 1.58% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.06 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.24 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.23 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.96 | Wall Street Target Price 55.25 |
Using First Business hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Business Financial from the perspective of First Business response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Business using First Business' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Business' stock price.
First Business Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
First Business' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Business Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Business' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Business stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Business' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Business to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Business after-hype prediction price | USD 49.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Business Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With First Business trading at USD 49.55, that is roughly USD 0.0248 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Business' daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Business Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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First Business After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Business at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Business or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Business, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Business Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Business' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Business' historical news coverage. First Business' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.96 and 51.90, respectively. We have considered First Business' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Business is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Business Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Business Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Business is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Business backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Business, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 2.47 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
49.55 | 49.43 | 0.24 |
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First Business Hype Timeline
First Business Financial is currently traded for 49.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. First is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 49.43. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on First Business is about 4802.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.56. About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.35. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Business Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.89. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 31st of August 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out First Business Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First Business Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Business' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Business' future price movements. Getting to know how First Business' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Business may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
First Business Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About First Business Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Business stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Business Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Business based on analysis of First Business hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Business's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Business's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0245 | 0.0259 | 0.0157 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.35 | 2.27 | 3.85 |
Story Coverage note for First Business
The number of cover stories for First Business depends on current market conditions and First Business' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Business is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Business' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Business Short Properties
First Business' future price predictability will typically decrease when First Business' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Business Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Business' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Business' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 139.5 M |
Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Business' price analysis, check to measure First Business' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Business is operating at the current time. Most of First Business' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Business' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Business' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Business to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.