Heritage Commerce Corp Stock Price Prediction
| HTBK Stock | USD 10.71 0.19 1.81% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
61
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.17 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.66 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.7 | Wall Street Target Price 11.5 |
Using Heritage Commerce hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Heritage Commerce Corp from the perspective of Heritage Commerce response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Heritage Commerce to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Heritage because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Heritage Commerce after-hype prediction price | USD 10.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Heritage |
Heritage Commerce After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Heritage Commerce at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Heritage Commerce or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Heritage Commerce, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Heritage Commerce Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Heritage Commerce's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Heritage Commerce's historical news coverage. Heritage Commerce's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.37 and 12.93, respectively. We have considered Heritage Commerce's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Heritage Commerce is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Heritage Commerce Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Heritage Commerce Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Heritage Commerce is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Heritage Commerce backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Heritage Commerce, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 2.28 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.71 | 10.65 | 0.56 |
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Heritage Commerce Hype Timeline
Heritage Commerce Corp is currently traded for 10.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Heritage is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.65. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.56%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Heritage Commerce is about 1447.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.73. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.94. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Heritage Commerce Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.88. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2024. The firm had 11:10 split on the 3rd of February 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Heritage Commerce Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Heritage Commerce Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Heritage Commerce's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Heritage Commerce's future price movements. Getting to know how Heritage Commerce's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Heritage Commerce may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMNF | HMN Financial | (0.15) | 6 per month | 1.85 | 0.12 | 4.29 | (3.19) | 13.15 | |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp | 0.00 | 4 per month | 2.40 | (0.01) | 3.82 | (4.31) | 21.70 | |
| FFNW | First Financial Northwest | 0.07 | 5 per month | 0.76 | (0.11) | 1.65 | (1.13) | 4.32 | |
| FNWB | First Northwest Bancorp | (0.15) | 10 per month | 1.69 | 0 | 4.11 | (2.82) | 14.21 | |
| FCAP | First Capital | 0.48 | 8 per month | 1.81 | 0.01 | 6.22 | (3.53) | 14.42 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | (0.09) | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.03 | 2.53 | (2.16) | 9.14 | |
| HVBC | HV Bancorp | (0.52) | 3 per month | 2.03 | 0.1 | 2.68 | (4.11) | 18.63 | |
| OFED | Oconee Federal Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.48 | (5.28) | 12.66 | |
| CULL | Cullman Bancorp | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 1.18 | (1.64) | 4.73 | |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | 0.59 | 9 per month | 1.73 | 0.08 | 3.76 | (3.12) | 12.98 | |
| CBFV | CB Financial Services | 0.31 | 11 per month | 1.55 | 0.09 | 3.23 | (2.62) | 10.09 | |
| CIVB | Civista Bancshares | 1.34 | 7 per month | 0.89 | 0.19 | 3.67 | (1.94) | 10.55 |
Heritage Commerce Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Heritage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Heritage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Heritage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Heritage Commerce Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Heritage Commerce stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Heritage Commerce Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Heritage Commerce based on analysis of Heritage Commerce hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Heritage Commerce's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Heritage Commerce's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0436 | 0.04 | 0.0524 | 0.055 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.61 | 4.15 | 3.16 | 4.98 |
Story Coverage note for Heritage Commerce
The number of cover stories for Heritage Commerce depends on current market conditions and Heritage Commerce's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Heritage Commerce is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Heritage Commerce's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Heritage Commerce Short Properties
Heritage Commerce's future price predictability will typically decrease when Heritage Commerce's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Heritage Commerce Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Heritage Commerce's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heritage Commerce's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 408.1 M |
Check out Heritage Commerce Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Commerce. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.71 | Revenue Per Share 2.763 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
The market value of Heritage Commerce Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.