Heritage Commerce Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| HTBK Stock | USD 12.64 0.14 1.10% |
Heritage Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Heritage Commerce's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Heritage Commerce's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Heritage Commerce fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Heritage Commerce's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Heritage Commerce, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.452 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2117 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.01 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.0475 | Wall Street Target Price 14.5 |
Using Heritage Commerce hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Heritage Commerce Corp from the perspective of Heritage Commerce response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Heritage Commerce using Heritage Commerce's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Heritage using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Heritage Commerce's stock price.
Heritage Commerce Short Interest
An investor who is long Heritage Commerce may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Heritage Commerce and may potentially protect profits, hedge Heritage Commerce with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.2759 | Short Percent 0.019 | Short Ratio 1.02 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.7 M | 50 Day MA 11.8602 |
Heritage Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Commerce Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.37.Heritage Commerce Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Heritage Commerce's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Heritage. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Heritage can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Heritage Commerce Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Heritage Commerce's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Heritage Commerce.
Heritage Commerce Implied Volatility | 1.19 |
Heritage Commerce's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Heritage Commerce Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Heritage Commerce's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Heritage Commerce stock will not fluctuate a lot when Heritage Commerce's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Commerce Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.37. Heritage Commerce after-hype prediction price | USD 12.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Commerce to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Heritage contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Heritage Commerce Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0744% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Heritage Commerce trading at USD 12.64, that is roughly USD 0.009401 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Heritage Commerce's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Heritage Commerce Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.19%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Heritage Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Heritage Commerce's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Heritage Commerce's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Heritage Commerce stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Heritage Commerce's open interest, investors have to compare it to Heritage Commerce's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Heritage Commerce is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Heritage. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Heritage Commerce Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Heritage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Heritage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Heritage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Heritage Commerce Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Commerce Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heritage Commerce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Heritage Commerce Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Heritage Commerce | Heritage Commerce Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Heritage Commerce Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Heritage Commerce's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Heritage Commerce's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.01 and 14.31, respectively. We have considered Heritage Commerce's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heritage Commerce stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heritage Commerce stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0185 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1395 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.37 |
Predictive Modules for Heritage Commerce
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heritage Commerce Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Heritage Commerce After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Heritage Commerce at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Heritage Commerce or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Heritage Commerce, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Heritage Commerce Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Heritage Commerce's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Heritage Commerce's historical news coverage. Heritage Commerce's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.01 and 14.27, respectively. We have considered Heritage Commerce's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Heritage Commerce is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Heritage Commerce Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Heritage Commerce Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Heritage Commerce is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Heritage Commerce backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Heritage Commerce, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 1.65 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.64 | 12.64 | 0.00 |
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Heritage Commerce Hype Timeline
Heritage Commerce Corp is currently traded for 12.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Heritage is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Heritage Commerce is about 413.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.78. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.11. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Heritage Commerce Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.88. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of February 2026. The firm had 11:10 split on the 3rd of February 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Commerce to cross-verify your projections.Heritage Commerce Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Heritage Commerce's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Heritage Commerce's future price movements. Getting to know how Heritage Commerce's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Heritage Commerce may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MPB | Mid Penn Bancorp | 0.11 | 11 per month | 1.47 | 0.08 | 3.32 | (2.94) | 10.40 | |
| CAC | Camden National | (0.53) | 9 per month | 1.13 | 0.17 | 3.78 | (1.96) | 10.30 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | 0.15 | 9 per month | 1.42 | 0.01 | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| NBBK | NB Bancorp Common | 1.60 | 9 per month | 1.04 | 0.12 | 2.93 | (2.07) | 6.22 | |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services | 1.02 | 17 per month | 1.18 | (0) | 2.73 | (2.35) | 8.43 | |
| HIFS | Hingham Institution for | 1.02 | 16 per month | 3.39 | (0.01) | 4.99 | (6.00) | 16.01 | |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | 0.11 | 3 per month | 1.81 | 0.01 | 2.88 | (2.34) | 14.35 | |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank | 0.22 | 8 per month | 1.66 | (0) | 3.09 | (2.95) | 8.54 | |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial | 0.18 | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.07 | 4.71 | (3.38) | 12.70 | |
| THFF | First Financial | 0.11 | 19 per month | 1.40 | 0.09 | 3.55 | (2.36) | 10.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Heritage Commerce
For every potential investor in Heritage, whether a beginner or expert, Heritage Commerce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Heritage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Heritage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Heritage Commerce's price trends.Heritage Commerce Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Heritage Commerce stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Heritage Commerce could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Heritage Commerce Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Heritage Commerce stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Heritage Commerce shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Heritage Commerce stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Heritage Commerce Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 14497.88 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 57.8 |
Heritage Commerce Risk Indicators
The analysis of Heritage Commerce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heritage Commerce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting heritage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Heritage Commerce
The number of cover stories for Heritage Commerce depends on current market conditions and Heritage Commerce's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Heritage Commerce is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Heritage Commerce's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Heritage Commerce Short Properties
Heritage Commerce's future price predictability will typically decrease when Heritage Commerce's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Heritage Commerce Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Heritage Commerce's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heritage Commerce's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.7 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 31.9 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.52 | |
| Shares Float | 59.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Commerce to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Commerce. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.452 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 0.78 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.177 |
The market value of Heritage Commerce Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.