Mercantile Bank Stock Price Prediction
| MBWM Stock | USD 44.21 0.45 1.03% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
35
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.13 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.866 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.414 | Wall Street Target Price 51.75 |
Using Mercantile Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercantile Bank from the perspective of Mercantile Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mercantile Bank using Mercantile Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mercantile using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mercantile Bank's stock price.
Mercantile Bank Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Mercantile Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mercantile Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mercantile Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mercantile Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mercantile Bank's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Mercantile Bank to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Mercantile because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Mercantile Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 44.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Mercantile contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Mercantile Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Mercantile Bank trading at USD 44.21, that is roughly USD 0.0188 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Mercantile Bank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Mercantile Bank options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Mercantile |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercantile Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercantile Bank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mercantile Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mercantile Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mercantile Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mercantile Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mercantile Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mercantile Bank's historical news coverage. Mercantile Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.35 and 46.97, respectively. We have considered Mercantile Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mercantile Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mercantile Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mercantile Bank Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mercantile Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mercantile Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mercantile Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.81 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
44.21 | 44.16 | 0.11 |
|
Mercantile Bank Hype Timeline
Mercantile Bank is now traded for 44.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Mercantile is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 44.16. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Mercantile Bank is about 1325.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.23. About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.22. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mercantile Bank has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.51. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.01. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2024. Mercantile Bank had 105:100 split on the 19th of April 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Mercantile Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Mercantile Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mercantile Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mercantile Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Mercantile Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mercantile Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MCBC | Macatawa Bank | (0.24) | 6 per month | 0.63 | 0.08 | 1.50 | (1.24) | 5.52 | |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | 0.28 | 9 per month | 1.94 | 0.04 | 2.91 | (2.99) | 19.07 | |
| FNLC | First Bancorp | (0.18) | 6 per month | 2.10 | 0.01 | 2.97 | (3.30) | 23.54 | |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group | (0.11) | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.04 | 3.08 | (2.57) | 16.45 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 1.31 | 8 per month | 1.67 | 0.04 | 3.57 | (3.00) | 16.50 |
Mercantile Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercantile price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercantile using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercantile charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Mercantile Bank Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Mercantile Bank stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Mercantile Bank, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Mercantile Bank based on analysis of Mercantile Bank hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Mercantile Bank's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Mercantile Bank's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0369 | 0.0325 | 0.0292 | 0.0232 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.79 | 2.97 | 3.41 | 4.06 |
Story Coverage note for Mercantile Bank
The number of cover stories for Mercantile Bank depends on current market conditions and Mercantile Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mercantile Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mercantile Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Mercantile Bank Short Properties
Mercantile Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mercantile Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mercantile Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mercantile Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercantile Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 130.5 M |
Check out Mercantile Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Mercantile Stock, please use our How to Invest in Mercantile Bank guide.You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mercantile Bank. If investors know Mercantile will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mercantile Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 1.4 | Earnings Share 5.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.036 |
The market value of Mercantile Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mercantile that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mercantile Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mercantile Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mercantile Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mercantile Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mercantile Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mercantile Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mercantile Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.