First National Corp Stock Technical Analysis
| FXNC Stock | USD 28.21 0.56 2.03% |
As of the 16th of February 2026, First National shows the Coefficient Of Variation of 435.11, downside deviation of 1.06, and Mean Deviation of 1.07. First National Corp technical analysis allows you to utilize historical prices and volume patterns in order to determine a pattern that computes the direction of the firm's future prices.
First National Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as First, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to FirstFirst National's Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.First National Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 27.67 | Hold | 2 | Odds |
Most First analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand First stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of First National Corp, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to First conference calls.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could First diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First National. Market participants price First higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every First National data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.725 | Dividend Share 0.635 | Earnings Share 1.96 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.343 |
Understanding First National Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects First's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what First National's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push First National's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, First National's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.
First National 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First National's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First National.
| 11/18/2025 |
| 02/16/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First National on November 18, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First National Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in First National over 90 days. First National is related to or competes with Franklin Financial, Chain Bridge, Eagle Financial, Virginia National, First Community, Avidbank Holdings,, and National Bankshares. First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides various commercial banking ... More
First National Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First National's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First National Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1806 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.68) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.78 |
First National Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First National historical prices to predict the future First National's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1898 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2786 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2108 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2417 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5032 |
First National February 16, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1898 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.5132 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7793 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 435.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1806 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2786 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2108 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2417 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5032 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.68) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6072 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) | |||
| Skewness | 0.5977 | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.6163 |
First National Corp Backtested Returns
First National appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. First National Corp secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.23, which denotes the company had a 0.23 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for First National Corp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize First National's Mean Deviation of 1.07, coefficient of variation of 435.11, and Downside Deviation of 1.06 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, First National holds a performance score of 18. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.63, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, First National's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First National is expected to be smaller as well. Please check First National's semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether First National's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
First National Corp has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First National time series from 18th of November 2025 to 2nd of January 2026 and 2nd of January 2026 to 16th of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First National Corp price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current First National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.59 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.67 |
First National technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
First National Corp Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was one with a total number of output elements of sixty. The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1970s. It is one of components of the Welles Wilder Directional Movement indicators. The ATR is a measure of First National Corp volatility. High ATR values indicate high volatility, and low values indicate low volatility.
About First National Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of First National Corp on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of First National Corp based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on First National Corp price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding First National Corp. By analyzing First National's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of First National's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to First National specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0264 | 0.0252 | 0.0338 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.01 | 1.82 | 2.09 |
First National February 16, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of First help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1898 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.5132 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7793 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 435.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1806 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2786 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2108 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2417 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5032 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.68) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6072 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) | |||
| Skewness | 0.5977 | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.6163 |
First National February 16, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as First stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.04 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.45 | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | ||
| Day Median Price | 28.14 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 28.16 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.35 | ||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.24 |
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First National's price analysis, check to measure First National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First National is operating at the current time. Most of First National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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