AerCap Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AER Stock | USD 143.97 0.71 0.50% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AerCap Holdings NV on the next trading day is expected to be 143.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.69. AerCap Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of AerCap Holdings' share price is at 59. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AerCap Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using AerCap Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AerCap Holdings NV from the perspective of AerCap Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AerCap Holdings NV on the next trading day is expected to be 143.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.69. AerCap Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 143.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AerCap Holdings to cross-verify your projections. AerCap Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AerCap price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AerCap using various technical indicators. When you analyze AerCap charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AerCap Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AerCap Holdings NV on the next trading day is expected to be 143.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31, mean absolute percentage error of 4.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AerCap Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AerCap Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AerCap Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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AerCap Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AerCap Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AerCap Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 142.42 and 145.52, respectively. We have considered AerCap Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AerCap Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AerCap Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6943 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3718 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3115 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0095 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 78.69 |
Predictive Modules for AerCap Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AerCap Holdings NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AerCap Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AerCap Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AerCap Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AerCap Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AerCap Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AerCap Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AerCap Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AerCap Holdings' historical news coverage. AerCap Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 142.42 and 145.52, respectively. We have considered AerCap Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AerCap Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AerCap Holdings NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
AerCap Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AerCap Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AerCap Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AerCap Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.55 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 5 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
143.97 | 143.97 | 0.00 |
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AerCap Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January AerCap Holdings NV is traded for 143.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.5, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. AerCap is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 89.6%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on AerCap Holdings is about 309.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 144.12. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.34. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AerCap Holdings NV has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.91. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 20.94. The firm last dividend was issued on the 12th of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AerCap Holdings to cross-verify your projections.AerCap Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AerCap Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AerCap Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how AerCap Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AerCap Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FTAI | FTAI Aviation | 1.15 | 21 per month | 2.76 | 0.22 | 6.86 | (4.53) | 17.39 | |
| CW | Curtiss Wright | 7.65 | 9 per month | 1.78 | 0.1 | 3.77 | (3.01) | 9.64 | |
| ESLT | Elbit Systems | (0.44) | 11 per month | 1.35 | 0.24 | 3.77 | (2.68) | 10.89 | |
| VLTO | Veralto | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.43 | (1.70) | 8.53 | |
| DOV | Dover | 0.40 | 8 per month | 0.88 | 0.16 | 3.12 | (2.09) | 10.70 | |
| HUBB | Hubbell | 5.74 | 24 per month | 1.61 | 0.06 | 3.55 | (2.91) | 8.35 | |
| AL | Air Lease | 0.03 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.63) | 0.25 | (0.17) | 0.66 | |
| EFX | Equifax | 1.73 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.95 | (2.34) | 9.21 | |
| GPN | Global Payments | 1.82 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.21 | (2.89) | 7.50 | |
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance | (12.87) | 24 per month | 2.22 | 0.19 | 5.67 | (3.93) | 11.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for AerCap Holdings
For every potential investor in AerCap, whether a beginner or expert, AerCap Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AerCap Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AerCap. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AerCap Holdings' price trends.AerCap Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AerCap Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AerCap Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AerCap Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AerCap Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AerCap Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AerCap Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AerCap Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AerCap Holdings NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AerCap Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of AerCap Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AerCap Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aercap stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.972 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6913 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Variance | 2.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9695 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4779 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AerCap Holdings
The number of cover stories for AerCap Holdings depends on current market conditions and AerCap Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AerCap Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AerCap Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AerCap Holdings Short Properties
AerCap Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when AerCap Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AerCap Holdings NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AerCap Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AerCap Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 194.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Additional Tools for AerCap Stock Analysis
When running AerCap Holdings' price analysis, check to measure AerCap Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AerCap Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of AerCap Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AerCap Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AerCap Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AerCap Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.