American Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AFGE Stock | USD 19.62 0.30 1.55% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 19.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.84. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Financial stock prices and determine the direction of American Financial Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
American |
American Financial Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the American Financial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.1 B | Current Value 1.3 B | Quarterly Volatility 774.9 M |
American Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 19.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Financial | American Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.39 and 20.28, respectively. We have considered American Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0673 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1777 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0089 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.8386 |
Predictive Modules for American Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for American Financial
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Financial's price trends.American Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Financial Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7339 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9653 | |||
| Variance | 0.9317 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether American Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Financial. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of American Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.