American Integrity Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AII Stock | 20.74 0.02 0.1% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Integrity Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 20.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.24. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Integrity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of now, American Integrity's Receivables Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The American Integrity's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.22, while Payables Turnover is projected to decrease to 1.66. . The American Integrity's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 40.8 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to under 15.7 M. American Integrity Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Integrity Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 20.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 1.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Integrity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Integrity Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Integrity | American Integrity Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Integrity Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Integrity's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Integrity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.09 and 23.27, respectively. We have considered American Integrity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Integrity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Integrity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0717 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.762 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0337 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.2414 |
Predictive Modules for American Integrity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Integrity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for American Integrity
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Integrity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Integrity's price trends.American Integrity Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Integrity stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Integrity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Integrity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Integrity Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Integrity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Integrity's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
American Integrity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Integrity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Integrity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Integrity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Integrity Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 239.29 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.17) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 20.73 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
American Integrity Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Integrity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Integrity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Variance | 6.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Integrity to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Integrity. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Integrity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.486 | Earnings Share 3.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.606 |
The market value of American Integrity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Integrity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Integrity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Integrity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Integrity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Integrity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Integrity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Integrity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.