American Integrity Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AII Stock | 18.34 0.17 0.92% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Integrity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, the relative strength indicator of American Integrity's share price is approaching 36. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling American Integrity, making its price go up or down. Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.486 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.838 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.745 | Wall Street Target Price 25 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.606 |
Using American Integrity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Integrity Insurance from the perspective of American Integrity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
American Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Integrity Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 17.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.63.American Integrity Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Integrity's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Integrity Insurance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Integrity's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Integrity.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Integrity Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 17.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.63. American Integrity after-hype prediction price | USD 18.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Integrity to cross-verify your projections. American Integrity Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Integrity Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Integrity Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 17.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Integrity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Integrity Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Integrity | American Integrity Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Integrity Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Integrity's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Integrity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.33 and 20.43, respectively. We have considered American Integrity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Integrity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Integrity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0711 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6989 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.032 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.6348 |
Predictive Modules for American Integrity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Integrity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Integrity After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Integrity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Integrity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Integrity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Integrity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Integrity's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Integrity's historical news coverage. American Integrity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.78 and 20.88, respectively. We have considered American Integrity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Integrity is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Integrity is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Integrity Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Integrity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Integrity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Integrity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 2.55 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.34 | 18.33 | 0.05 |
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American Integrity Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January American Integrity is traded for 18.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. American is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.33. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.4%. The volatility of related hype on American Integrity is about 28333.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.34. About 55.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.47. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Integrity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Integrity to cross-verify your projections.American Integrity Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Integrity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Integrity's future price movements. Getting to know how American Integrity's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Integrity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | 0.05 | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.99 | (2.52) | 5.10 | |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity Group | (0.49) | 8 per month | 1.11 | (0.04) | 2.91 | (1.86) | 5.97 | |
| ACIC | American Coastal Insurance | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.82 | (2.36) | 8.47 | |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp | 0.70 | 10 per month | 1.44 | 0.04 | 3.33 | (2.89) | 7.55 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | 0.06 | 8 per month | 1.34 | (0.03) | 2.67 | (2.02) | 8.39 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.02 | 2.09 | (1.72) | 9.50 | |
| BWB | Bridgewater Bancshares | 0.18 | 17 per month | 1.32 | 0.06 | 3.50 | (2.33) | 9.97 | |
| NRIM | Northrim BanCorp | 0.13 | 9 per month | 3.15 | 0.02 | 4.71 | (3.09) | 21.03 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | (0.33) | 11 per month | 1.82 | 0.18 | 6.49 | (1.83) | 14.42 | |
| ECC | Eagle Point Credit | 0.03 | 7 per month | 1.53 | (0.03) | 2.49 | (2.11) | 10.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Integrity
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Integrity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Integrity's price trends.American Integrity Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Integrity stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Integrity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Integrity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Integrity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Integrity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Integrity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Integrity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Integrity Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Integrity Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Integrity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Integrity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Integrity
The number of cover stories for American Integrity depends on current market conditions and American Integrity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Integrity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Integrity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Integrity Short Properties
American Integrity's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Integrity's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Integrity Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Integrity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Integrity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 262.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Integrity to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is there potential for Property & Casualty Insurance market expansion? Will American introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Integrity. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about American Integrity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.486 | Earnings Share 3.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.606 |
American Integrity's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on American's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate American Integrity's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since American Integrity's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that American Integrity's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether American Integrity represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, American Integrity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.