Amalgamated Bank Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AMAL Stock | USD 39.06 1.41 3.75% |
Amalgamated Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Amalgamated Bank's share price is above 70 as of now. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Amalgamated, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Amalgamated Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amalgamated Bank from the perspective of Amalgamated Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amalgamated Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 39.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.89. Amalgamated Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 39.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Amalgamated Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amalgamated price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amalgamated using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amalgamated charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amalgamated Bank Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amalgamated Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 39.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amalgamated Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amalgamated Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amalgamated Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
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Amalgamated Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amalgamated Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amalgamated Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.02 and 41.10, respectively. We have considered Amalgamated Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amalgamated Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amalgamated Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5369 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1948 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4815 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.89 |
Predictive Modules for Amalgamated Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amalgamated Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Amalgamated Bank After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amalgamated Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amalgamated Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amalgamated Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amalgamated Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amalgamated Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amalgamated Bank's historical news coverage. Amalgamated Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.02 and 41.10, respectively. We have considered Amalgamated Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amalgamated Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amalgamated Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amalgamated Bank Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amalgamated Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amalgamated Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amalgamated Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
39.06 | 39.06 | 0.00 |
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Amalgamated Bank Hype Timeline
Amalgamated Bank is presently traded for 39.06. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Amalgamated is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.6%. %. The volatility of related hype on Amalgamated Bank is about 40800.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.06. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.45. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Amalgamated Bank last dividend was issued on the 3rd of February 2026. The entity had 20:1 split on the 1st of August 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amalgamated Bank to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Amalgamated Stock please use our How to buy in Amalgamated Stock guide.Amalgamated Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amalgamated Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amalgamated Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Amalgamated Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amalgamated Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DCOM | Dime Community Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.19 | 3.51 | (2.14) | 11.73 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | 0.39 | 9 per month | 2.43 | (0.02) | 3.12 | (1.93) | 18.16 | |
| FMBH | First Mid Illinois | (0.32) | 10 per month | 1.26 | 0.07 | 3.31 | (2.58) | 9.25 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | 0.02 | 7 per month | 1.56 | 0.02 | 3.16 | (2.37) | 9.50 | |
| UVSP | Univest Pennsylvania | (0.57) | 11 per month | 1.17 | 0.03 | 3.42 | (2.21) | 9.31 | |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.13 | 0.15 | 3.39 | (2.28) | 13.04 | |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.07 | 2.86 | (2.04) | 9.76 | |
| CFFN | Capitol Federal Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.16 | 2.82 | (1.77) | 8.42 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 0.43 | 10 per month | 0.89 | 0.15 | 2.73 | (1.57) | 8.89 | |
| ESQ | Esquire Financial Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.11 | 3.91 | (2.36) | 8.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amalgamated Bank
For every potential investor in Amalgamated, whether a beginner or expert, Amalgamated Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amalgamated Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amalgamated. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amalgamated Bank's price trends.Amalgamated Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amalgamated Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amalgamated Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amalgamated Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amalgamated Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amalgamated Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amalgamated Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amalgamated Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amalgamated Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Amalgamated Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amalgamated Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amalgamated Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amalgamated stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amalgamated Bank
The number of cover stories for Amalgamated Bank depends on current market conditions and Amalgamated Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amalgamated Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amalgamated Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amalgamated Bank to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Amalgamated Stock please use our How to buy in Amalgamated Stock guide.You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amalgamated Bank. If investors know Amalgamated will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Amalgamated Bank assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of Amalgamated Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amalgamated that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amalgamated Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amalgamated Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amalgamated Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amalgamated Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Amalgamated Bank's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Amalgamated Bank represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Amalgamated Bank's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.