Auburn National Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AUBN Stock | USD 26.25 0.37 1.43% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Auburn National Bancorporation on the next trading day is expected to be 27.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.31. Auburn Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Auburn National's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Auburn National's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Auburn National fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Auburn National's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.286 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.115 |
Using Auburn National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Auburn National Bancorporation from the perspective of Auburn National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Auburn National Bancorporation on the next trading day is expected to be 27.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.31. Auburn National after-hype prediction price | USD 26.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Auburn National to cross-verify your projections. Auburn National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Auburn price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Auburn using various technical indicators. When you analyze Auburn charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Auburn National Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Auburn National's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1996-06-30 | Previous Quarter 128.6 M | Current Value 127.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 31.2 M |
Auburn National Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Auburn National Bancorporation on the next trading day is expected to be 27.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60, mean absolute percentage error of 0.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Auburn Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Auburn National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Auburn National Stock Forecast Pattern
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Auburn National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Auburn National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Auburn National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.08 and 29.99, respectively. We have considered Auburn National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Auburn National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Auburn National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4294 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5952 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0233 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.3053 |
Predictive Modules for Auburn National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Auburn National Banc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Auburn National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Auburn National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Auburn National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Auburn National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Auburn National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Auburn National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Auburn National's historical news coverage. Auburn National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.29 and 29.21, respectively. We have considered Auburn National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Auburn National is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Auburn National Banc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Auburn National Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Auburn National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Auburn National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Auburn National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.25 | 26.25 | 0.00 |
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Auburn National Hype Timeline
Auburn National Banc is presently traded for 26.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Auburn is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Auburn National is about 37000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.25. About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.02. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Auburn National Banc last dividend was issued on the 10th of September 2025. The entity had 3:1 split on the 26th of June 1998. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Auburn National to cross-verify your projections.Auburn National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Auburn National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Auburn National's future price movements. Getting to know how Auburn National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Auburn National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | (0.19) | 10 per month | 0.73 | 0.21 | 2.39 | (1.48) | 5.78 | |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.75 | 0.01 | 1.34 | (1.04) | 4.66 | |
| PBHC | Pathfinder Bancorp | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.06 | (2.97) | 10.87 | |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp | 0.23 | 20 per month | 0.58 | 0.01 | 1.38 | (0.89) | 5.02 | |
| FUSB | First Bancshares | 0.27 | 9 per month | 1.79 | 0.1 | 2.98 | (3.07) | 13.31 | |
| UNB | Union Bankshares | 0.05 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.72 | (3.21) | 10.46 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | (0.25) | 8 per month | 1.12 | (0.02) | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 | |
| CFSB | CFSB Bancorp | 0.01 | 5 per month | 0.32 | (0.08) | 0.85 | (0.56) | 3.27 | |
| WSBK | Winchester Bancorp Common | 0.04 | 1 per month | 0.50 | 0.15 | 1.75 | (1.25) | 7.47 | |
| UBCP | United Bancorp | (0.08) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.04 | 2.86 | (2.56) | 8.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Auburn National
For every potential investor in Auburn, whether a beginner or expert, Auburn National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Auburn Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Auburn. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Auburn National's price trends.Auburn National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Auburn National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Auburn National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Auburn National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Auburn National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Auburn National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Auburn National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Auburn National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Auburn National Bancorporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Auburn National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Auburn National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Auburn National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting auburn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Variance | 9.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Auburn National
The number of cover stories for Auburn National depends on current market conditions and Auburn National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Auburn National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Auburn National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Auburn National Short Properties
Auburn National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Auburn National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Auburn National Bancorporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Auburn National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Auburn National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 56.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Auburn National to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Auburn National. If investors know Auburn will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Auburn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.286 | Dividend Share 1.08 | Earnings Share 2.05 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.115 |
The market value of Auburn National Banc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Auburn that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Auburn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Auburn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Auburn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Auburn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Auburn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Auburn National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Auburn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.