American Axle Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AXL Stock | USD 8.04 0.07 0.88% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although American Axle's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American Axle's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Axle fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of American Axle's stock price is about 61. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling American, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0041 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.4473 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6986 | Wall Street Target Price 8.7429 |
Using American Axle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Axle Manufacturing from the perspective of American Axle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Axle using American Axle's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Axle's stock price.
American Axle Short Interest
An investor who is long American Axle may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Axle and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Axle with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.4291 | Short Percent 0.3443 | Short Ratio 12.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 28.5 M | 50 Day MA 6.7234 |
American Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Axle Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 7.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.85.American Axle Manufa Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Axle's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Axle Manufacturing. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Axle's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Axle.
American Axle Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
American Axle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Axle Manufacturing stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Axle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Axle stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Axle's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Axle Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 7.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.85. American Axle after-hype prediction price | USD 8.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Axle to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Axle Manufacturing will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With American Axle trading at USD 8.04, that is roughly USD 0.004523 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Axle's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Axle Manufacturing options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Axle's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Axle's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Axle stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Axle's open interest, investors have to compare it to American Axle's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Axle is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Axle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Axle Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the American Axle's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-03-31 | Previous Quarter 586.5 M | Current Value 714.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 247.7 M |
American Axle Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Axle Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 7.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Axle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Axle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Axle | American Axle Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Axle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Axle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Axle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.67 and 11.19, respectively. We have considered American Axle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Axle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Axle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7787 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1588 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0237 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.848 |
Predictive Modules for American Axle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Axle Manufa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Axle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Axle After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Axle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Axle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Axle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Axle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Axle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Axle's historical news coverage. American Axle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.77 and 11.31, respectively. We have considered American Axle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Axle is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Axle Manufa is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Axle Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Axle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Axle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Axle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 3.26 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.04 | 8.04 | 0.00 |
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American Axle Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January American Axle Manufa is traded for 8.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.43%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Axle is about 1358.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.14. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.32. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Axle Manufa last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 2008. The entity had 117:1000 split on the 5th of October 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Axle to cross-verify your projections.American Axle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Axle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Axle's future price movements. Getting to know how American Axle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Axle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | 0.03 | 3 per month | 1.68 | (0.04) | 3.07 | (2.25) | 7.22 | |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics | (0.16) | 26 per month | 0.90 | 0.15 | 3.22 | (1.80) | 8.83 | |
| SES | SES AI Corp | 0.03 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.80 | (7.27) | 28.94 | |
| ECX | ECARX Holdings Class | (0.22) | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.25 | (10.48) | 26.42 | |
| BJRI | BJs Restaurants | 1.72 | 10 per month | 1.74 | 0.11 | 4.29 | (3.07) | 21.89 | |
| CARS | Cars Inc | 0.05 | 10 per month | 1.95 | 0.04 | 3.99 | (3.44) | 10.98 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | (0.26) | 8 per month | 6.69 | (0) | 16.00 | (10.24) | 48.05 | |
| CPS | Cooper Stnd | 0.11 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.82 | (5.11) | 18.47 | |
| XPEL | Xpel Inc | 1.53 | 6 per month | 1.37 | 0.26 | 4.45 | (2.59) | 11.45 | |
| CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old | (0.43) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.62 | (5.32) | 13.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Axle
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Axle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Axle's price trends.American Axle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Axle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Axle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Axle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Axle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Axle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Axle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Axle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Axle Manufacturing entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Axle Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Axle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Axle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Variance | 10.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Axle
The number of cover stories for American Axle depends on current market conditions and American Axle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Axle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Axle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Axle Short Properties
American Axle's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Axle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Axle Manufacturing often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Axle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Axle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 121.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 552.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Axle to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Axle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Axle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Earnings Share 0.34 | Revenue Per Share | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of American Axle Manufa is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Axle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Axle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Axle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Axle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Axle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Axle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Axle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.