Baldwin Insurance Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BWIN Stock | 48.57 0.74 1.55% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Baldwin Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 48.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.32. Baldwin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Baldwin Insurance's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Baldwin Insurance's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Baldwin Insurance fundamentals over time.
Baldwin |
Baldwin Insurance Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Baldwin Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 48.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99, mean absolute percentage error of 2.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Baldwin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Baldwin Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Baldwin Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Baldwin Insurance | Baldwin Insurance Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Baldwin Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Baldwin Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Baldwin Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.59 and 51.55, respectively. We have considered Baldwin Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Baldwin Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Baldwin Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9697 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.038 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9887 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0208 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.32 |
Predictive Modules for Baldwin Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baldwin Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Baldwin Insurance
For every potential investor in Baldwin, whether a beginner or expert, Baldwin Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Baldwin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Baldwin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Baldwin Insurance's price trends.Baldwin Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Baldwin Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Baldwin Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Baldwin Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Baldwin Insurance Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Baldwin Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Baldwin Insurance's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Baldwin Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Baldwin Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Baldwin Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Baldwin Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Baldwin Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Baldwin Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Baldwin Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Baldwin Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting baldwin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Variance | 8.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Baldwin Insurance
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Baldwin Insurance position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Baldwin Insurance will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Baldwin Stock
| 0.53 | ALIZY | Allianz SE ADR | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | SLQT | Selectquote | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | BY | Byline Bancorp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | WTW | Willis Towers Watson | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | AX | Axos Financial | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Baldwin Insurance could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Baldwin Insurance when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Baldwin Insurance - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling The Baldwin Insurance to buy it.
The correlation of Baldwin Insurance is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Baldwin Insurance moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Baldwin Insurance moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Baldwin Insurance can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baldwin Insurance to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Insurance Brokers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Baldwin Insurance. If investors know Baldwin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Baldwin Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.80) | Revenue Per Share 21.258 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.144 | Return On Assets 0.0151 | Return On Equity (0.08) |
The market value of Baldwin Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Baldwin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Baldwin Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Baldwin Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Baldwin Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Baldwin Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Baldwin Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Baldwin Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Baldwin Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.