Baldwin Insurance Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

BWIN Stock   26.33  0.12  0.46%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The Baldwin Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 26.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.56. Baldwin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Baldwin Insurance's share price is at 55 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Baldwin Insurance, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 55

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Baldwin Insurance's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with The Baldwin Insurance, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Baldwin Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Baldwin Insurance from the perspective of Baldwin Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The Baldwin Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 26.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.56.

Baldwin Insurance after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 26.33  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baldwin Insurance to cross-verify your projections.

Baldwin Insurance Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Baldwin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Baldwin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Baldwin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Baldwin Insurance is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Baldwin Insurance Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The Baldwin Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 26.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 0.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Baldwin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Baldwin Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Baldwin Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Baldwin InsuranceBaldwin Insurance Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Baldwin Insurance Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Baldwin Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Baldwin Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.04 and 29.50, respectively. We have considered Baldwin Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.33
26.27
Expected Value
29.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Baldwin Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Baldwin Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3575
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0627
MADMean absolute deviation0.7383
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0298
SAESum of the absolute errors43.56
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of The Baldwin Insurance price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Baldwin Insurance. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Baldwin Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baldwin Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.1026.3329.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.3321.5628.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.0525.2027.34
Details

Baldwin Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Baldwin Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Baldwin Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Baldwin Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Baldwin Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Baldwin Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Baldwin Insurance's historical news coverage. Baldwin Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.10 and 29.56, respectively. We have considered Baldwin Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
26.33
26.33
After-hype Price
29.56
Upside
Baldwin Insurance is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Baldwin Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.

Baldwin Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Baldwin Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Baldwin Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Baldwin Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
3.23
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
26.33
26.33
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Baldwin Insurance Hype Timeline

Baldwin Insurance is currently traded for 26.33. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Baldwin is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Baldwin Insurance is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.33. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.44. Baldwin Insurance had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baldwin Insurance to cross-verify your projections.

Baldwin Insurance Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Baldwin Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Baldwin Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Baldwin Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Baldwin Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
QFIN360 Finance 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.21) 3.31 (5.69) 27.66 
FINVFinVolution Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 3.99 (5.75) 23.40 
FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.21  0.05  2.92 (1.33) 5.97 
BLXForeign Trade Bank 0.00 0 per month 1.40 (0.01) 2.74 (1.75) 5.72 
CLBKColumbia Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.27  0.01  2.34 (2.16) 6.54 
CCBCoastal Financial Corp 0.00 0 per month 2.36  0.01  2.86 (3.36) 9.36 
STELStellar Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.73  0.08  2.20 (1.28) 6.09 
FRMEFirst Merchants 0.00 0 per month 1.09  0.02  2.08 (1.50) 6.00 
PWPPerella Weinberg Partners 0.00 0 per month 2.45  0.04  4.96 (3.42) 12.28 
GABCGerman American Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 1.04  0.01  3.00 (1.86) 6.11 

Other Forecasting Options for Baldwin Insurance

For every potential investor in Baldwin, whether a beginner or expert, Baldwin Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Baldwin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Baldwin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Baldwin Insurance's price trends.

Baldwin Insurance Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Baldwin Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Baldwin Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Baldwin Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Baldwin Insurance Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Baldwin Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Baldwin Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Baldwin Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The Baldwin Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Baldwin Insurance Risk Indicators

The analysis of Baldwin Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Baldwin Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting baldwin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Baldwin Insurance

The number of cover stories for Baldwin Insurance depends on current market conditions and Baldwin Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Baldwin Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Baldwin Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Baldwin Insurance Short Properties

Baldwin Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Baldwin Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Baldwin Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Baldwin Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Baldwin Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding63.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments148.1 M
When determining whether Baldwin Insurance offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Baldwin Insurance's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of The Baldwin Insurance Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on The Baldwin Insurance Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Baldwin Insurance to cross-verify your projections.
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Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Baldwin Insurance. If investors know Baldwin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Baldwin Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Baldwin Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Baldwin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Baldwin Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Baldwin Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Baldwin Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Baldwin Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Baldwin Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Baldwin Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Baldwin Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.