ChoiceOne Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| COFS Stock | USD 30.02 0.43 1.41% |
ChoiceOne Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of ChoiceOne Financial's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ChoiceOne Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ChoiceOne Financial Services from the perspective of ChoiceOne Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ChoiceOne Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 30.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.17. ChoiceOne Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 30.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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ChoiceOne Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ChoiceOne price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ChoiceOne using various technical indicators. When you analyze ChoiceOne charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ChoiceOne Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ChoiceOne Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 30.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ChoiceOne Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ChoiceOne Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ChoiceOne Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ChoiceOne Financial | ChoiceOne Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
ChoiceOne Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ChoiceOne Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ChoiceOne Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.23 and 31.97, respectively. We have considered ChoiceOne Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ChoiceOne Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ChoiceOne Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0313 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0217 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3862 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.1743 |
Predictive Modules for ChoiceOne Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ChoiceOne Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ChoiceOne Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ChoiceOne Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ChoiceOne Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ChoiceOne Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ChoiceOne Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ChoiceOne Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ChoiceOne Financial's historical news coverage. ChoiceOne Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.55 and 32.29, respectively. We have considered ChoiceOne Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ChoiceOne Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ChoiceOne Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
ChoiceOne Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ChoiceOne Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ChoiceOne Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ChoiceOne Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.02 | 30.42 | 0.10 |
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ChoiceOne Financial Hype Timeline
ChoiceOne Financial is currently traded for 30.02. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. ChoiceOne is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 30.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on ChoiceOne Financial is about 1870.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.03. About 44.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ChoiceOne Financial last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The entity had 105:100 split on the 9th of May 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ChoiceOne Financial to cross-verify your projections.ChoiceOne Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ChoiceOne Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ChoiceOne Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how ChoiceOne Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ChoiceOne Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PFIS | Peoples Fin | 0.50 | 3 per month | 1.08 | 0.18 | 3.21 | (1.89) | 8.79 | |
| RRBI | Red River Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.26 | 4.16 | (2.11) | 7.97 | |
| PGC | Peapack Gladstone Financial | 0.50 | 3 per month | 1.31 | 0.23 | 4.02 | (2.27) | 11.04 | |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.20 | 3.73 | (2.01) | 13.02 | |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.13 | 3.35 | (1.91) | 8.36 | |
| BWB | Bridgewater Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.15 | 3.22 | (1.96) | 9.97 | |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.13 | 3.62 | (1.95) | 9.63 | |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.22 | 0.11 | 2.50 | (2.28) | 7.30 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.13 | 2.91 | (1.59) | 8.39 | |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.20 | 4.45 | (1.96) | 9.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for ChoiceOne Financial
For every potential investor in ChoiceOne, whether a beginner or expert, ChoiceOne Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ChoiceOne Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ChoiceOne. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ChoiceOne Financial's price trends.ChoiceOne Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ChoiceOne Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ChoiceOne Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ChoiceOne Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ChoiceOne Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ChoiceOne Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ChoiceOne Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ChoiceOne Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ChoiceOne Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3145.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.32) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.37 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.57) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.43) |
ChoiceOne Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of ChoiceOne Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ChoiceOne Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting choiceone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ChoiceOne Financial
The number of cover stories for ChoiceOne Financial depends on current market conditions and ChoiceOne Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ChoiceOne Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ChoiceOne Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ChoiceOne Financial Short Properties
ChoiceOne Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when ChoiceOne Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ChoiceOne Financial Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ChoiceOne Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ChoiceOne Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 642.4 M |
Additional Tools for ChoiceOne Stock Analysis
When running ChoiceOne Financial's price analysis, check to measure ChoiceOne Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ChoiceOne Financial is operating at the current time. Most of ChoiceOne Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ChoiceOne Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ChoiceOne Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ChoiceOne Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.