First Mid Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FMBH Stock | USD 43.80 0.22 0.50% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of First Mid's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of First Mid's stock price is under 63. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 3rd of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.238 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.096 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.51 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.8067 | Wall Street Target Price 47.2857 |
Using First Mid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Mid Illinois from the perspective of First Mid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Mid using First Mid's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Mid's stock price.
First Mid Implied Volatility | 0.85 |
First Mid's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Mid Illinois stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Mid's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Mid stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Mid's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Mid Illinois on the next trading day is expected to be 44.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.69. First Mid after-hype prediction price | USD 43.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Mid to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Mid Illinois will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0531% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With First Mid trading at USD 43.8, that is roughly USD 0.0233 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Mid's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Mid Illinois options at the current volatility level of 0.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Mid's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Mid's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Mid stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Mid's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Mid's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Mid is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
First Mid Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Mid Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Mid Illinois on the next trading day is expected to be 44.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Mid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Mid Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Mid | First Mid Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
First Mid Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Mid's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Mid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.32 and 45.71, respectively. We have considered First Mid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Mid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Mid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1047 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5371 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.6895 |
Predictive Modules for First Mid
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Mid Illinois. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Mid After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Mid at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Mid or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Mid, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Mid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Mid's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Mid's historical news coverage. First Mid's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.79 and 45.21, respectively. We have considered First Mid's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Mid is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Mid Illinois is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Mid Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Mid is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Mid backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Mid, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.69 | 0.08 | 0.24 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
43.80 | 43.50 | 0.18 |
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First Mid Hype Timeline
First Mid Illinois is currently traded for 43.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. First is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 43.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on First Mid is about 219.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.04. About 48.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.05. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Mid Illinois has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.88. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of February 2026. The firm had 3:2 split on the 2nd of July 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Mid to cross-verify your projections.First Mid Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Mid's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Mid's future price movements. Getting to know how First Mid's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Mid may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 1.17 | 8 per month | 0.88 | 0.14 | 2.83 | (1.57) | 8.89 | |
| UVSP | Univest Pennsylvania | (0.28) | 10 per month | 1.07 | 0.1 | 3.67 | (2.09) | 9.31 | |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial | 2.26 | 9 per month | 1.40 | 0.14 | 3.87 | (2.40) | 10.36 | |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Bank | 2.40 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.26 | 3.75 | (2.09) | 8.00 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | 1.58 | 8 per month | 1.52 | 0.06 | 3.16 | (2.37) | 9.50 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | (0.05) | 7 per month | 2.33 | (0) | 3.23 | (1.93) | 18.16 | |
| DCOM | Dime Community Bancshares | 0.99 | 7 per month | 1.26 | 0.19 | 3.94 | (2.56) | 11.73 | |
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.87 | 0.12 | 3.49 | (2.36) | 10.98 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.99 | 0.14 | 2.72 | (1.57) | 8.85 | |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group | (0.32) | 9 per month | 1.33 | 0.15 | 3.39 | (2.70) | 13.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Mid
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Mid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Mid's price trends.First Mid Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Mid stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Mid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Mid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Mid Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Mid stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Mid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Mid stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Mid Illinois entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Mid Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Mid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Mid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Variance | 2.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Mid
The number of cover stories for First Mid depends on current market conditions and First Mid's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Mid is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Mid's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Mid to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is there potential for Regional Banks market expansion? Will First introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Mid. Market participants price First higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about First Mid listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.238 | Dividend Share 0.98 | Earnings Share 3.97 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 |
First Mid Illinois's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on First's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate First Mid's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since First Mid's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Mid's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Mid is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Mid's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.