First Bancshares Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FUSB Stock | USD 14.96 0.64 4.47% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 14.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.82. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Bancshares stock prices and determine the direction of First Bancshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of First Bancshares' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.002 |
Using First Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Bancshares from the perspective of First Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 14.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.82. First Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 14.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. First Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Bancshares Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 14.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Bancshares | First Bancshares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.90 and 16.98, respectively. We have considered First Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6717 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0524 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.197 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0146 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.8175 |
Predictive Modules for First Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Bancshares After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Bancshares' historical news coverage. First Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.90 and 17.08, respectively. We have considered First Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Bancshares is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Bancshares Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.96 | 14.99 | 0.20 |
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First Bancshares Hype Timeline
First Bancshares is currently traded for 14.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. First is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on First Bancshares is about 1152.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.01. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 61.84 M. Net Income was 8.17 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 36.07 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.First Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how First Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOTJ | Bank of the | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.09 | 2.78 | (2.51) | 9.56 | |
| UBCP | United Bancorp | (0.08) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.02 | 2.86 | (2.56) | 8.48 | |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp | 0.1 | 18 per month | 0.59 | 0.01 | 1.38 | (0.89) | 5.02 | |
| FDSB | Fifth District Bancorp | 0.09 | 3 per month | 0.34 | 0.13 | 1.09 | (1.05) | 3.97 | |
| FNWB | First Northwest Bancorp | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.51 | 0.24 | 3.29 | (1.78) | 11.46 | |
| AUBN | Auburn National Bancorporation | 0.10 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.68 | (4.38) | 17.69 | |
| SSBI | Summit State Bank | (0.20) | 6 per month | 1.78 | 0.08 | 3.62 | (2.69) | 8.92 | |
| CPBI | Central Plains Bancshares | (0.07) | 7 per month | 0.88 | 0.08 | 1.37 | (1.11) | 5.01 | |
| CASH | Meta Financial Group | 1.59 | 12 per month | 1.03 | 0.12 | 3.43 | (1.75) | 5.74 | |
| FGBI | First Guaranty Bancshares | 0.09 | 3 per month | 4.72 | 0.03 | 5.38 | (7.07) | 20.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Bancshares
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Bancshares' price trends.First Bancshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Variance | 4.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Bancshares
The number of cover stories for First Bancshares depends on current market conditions and First Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Bancshares Short Properties
First Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when First Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 71.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Bancshares. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Dividend Share 0.28 | Earnings Share 0.93 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.002 |
The market value of First Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.