Horace Mann Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| HMN Stock | USD 42.88 0.47 1.08% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Horace Mann Educators on the next trading day is expected to be 44.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.33. Horace Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Horace Mann's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Horace Mann's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Horace Mann fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Horace Mann's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.687 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2833 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.6675 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.6825 | Wall Street Target Price 50.6667 |
Using Horace Mann hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Horace Mann Educators from the perspective of Horace Mann response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Horace Mann using Horace Mann's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Horace using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Horace Mann's stock price.
Horace Mann Short Interest
An investor who is long Horace Mann may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Horace Mann and may potentially protect profits, hedge Horace Mann with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 43.8166 | Short Percent 0.0135 | Short Ratio 1.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 657 K | 50 Day MA 45.293 |
Horace Mann Educators Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Horace Mann's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Horace. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Horace can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Horace Mann Educators. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Horace Mann Implied Volatility | 1.03 |
Horace Mann's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Horace Mann Educators stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Horace Mann's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Horace Mann stock will not fluctuate a lot when Horace Mann's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Horace Mann Educators on the next trading day is expected to be 44.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.33. Horace Mann after-hype prediction price | USD 43.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Horace Mann to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Horace contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Horace Mann Educators will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2026-02-20 option contract. With Horace Mann trading at USD 42.88, that is roughly USD 0.0276 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Horace Mann's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Horace Mann Educators options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Horace Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Horace Mann's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Horace Mann's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Horace Mann stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Horace Mann's open interest, investors have to compare it to Horace Mann's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Horace Mann is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Horace. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Horace Mann Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Horace price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Horace using various technical indicators. When you analyze Horace charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Horace Mann Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Horace Mann Educators on the next trading day is expected to be 44.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96, mean absolute percentage error of 1.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Horace Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Horace Mann's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Horace Mann Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Horace Mann | Horace Mann Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Horace Mann Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Horace Mann's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Horace Mann's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.35 and 45.87, respectively. We have considered Horace Mann's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Horace Mann stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Horace Mann stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3895 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9562 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.3271 |
Predictive Modules for Horace Mann
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Horace Mann Educators. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Horace Mann After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Horace Mann at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Horace Mann or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Horace Mann, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Horace Mann Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Horace Mann's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Horace Mann's historical news coverage. Horace Mann's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.09 and 44.61, respectively. We have considered Horace Mann's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Horace Mann is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Horace Mann Educators is based on 3 months time horizon.
Horace Mann Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Horace Mann is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Horace Mann backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Horace Mann, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.26 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
42.88 | 43.35 | 0.00 |
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Horace Mann Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Horace Mann Educators is traded for 42.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Horace is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Horace Mann is about 1000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.88. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.22. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Horace Mann Educators has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.52. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 16th of December 1997. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Horace Mann to cross-verify your projections.Horace Mann Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Horace Mann's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Horace Mann's future price movements. Getting to know how Horace Mann's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Horace Mann may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SKWD | Skyward Specialty Insurance | (2.37) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.99 | (2.98) | 11.17 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | (0.88) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.21 | (3.25) | 9.24 | |
| SLDE | Slide Insurance Holdings | 0.64 | 5 per month | 1.84 | 0.04 | 4.24 | (3.18) | 14.08 | |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares | 4.26 | 11 per month | 1.55 | 0.07 | 2.95 | (2.92) | 7.36 | |
| AHL | Aspen Insurance Holdings | (0.15) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.58) | 0.22 | (0.19) | 0.76 | |
| CHCO | City Holding | 0.26 | 10 per month | 0.84 | 0.0003 | 1.91 | (1.43) | 5.08 | |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares | 0.02 | 5 per month | 1.19 | 0.01 | 3.66 | (1.44) | 5.98 | |
| TY | Tri Continental Closed | (0.44) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.04 | (0.89) | 7.86 | |
| OFG | OFG Bancorp | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.23 | (2.00) | 8.97 | |
| WT | WisdomTree | (0.10) | 4 per month | 1.39 | 0.12 | 4.19 | (2.35) | 8.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Horace Mann
For every potential investor in Horace, whether a beginner or expert, Horace Mann's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Horace Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Horace. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Horace Mann's price trends.Horace Mann Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Horace Mann stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Horace Mann could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Horace Mann by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Horace Mann Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Horace Mann stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Horace Mann shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Horace Mann stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Horace Mann Educators entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 42.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 42.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.47) |
Horace Mann Risk Indicators
The analysis of Horace Mann's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Horace Mann's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting horace stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.885 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Horace Mann
The number of cover stories for Horace Mann depends on current market conditions and Horace Mann's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Horace Mann is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Horace Mann's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Horace Mann Short Properties
Horace Mann's future price predictability will typically decrease when Horace Mann's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Horace Mann Educators often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Horace Mann's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Horace Mann's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 513.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Horace Mann to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Multi-line Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Horace Mann. If investors know Horace will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Horace Mann listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.687 | Dividend Share 1.39 | Earnings Share 3.95 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.064 |
The market value of Horace Mann Educators is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Horace that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Horace Mann's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Horace Mann's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Horace Mann's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Horace Mann's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Horace Mann's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Horace Mann is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Horace Mann's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.