Investar Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ISTR Stock | USD 27.95 0.30 1.06% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Investar Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.24. Investar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Investar Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Investar Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Investar Holding fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Investar Holding's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.52 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.0733 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.3167 | Wall Street Target Price 30.5 |
Using Investar Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Investar Holding Corp from the perspective of Investar Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Investar Holding Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Investar Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Investar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Investar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Investar Holding Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Investar Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.24.
Investar Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 27.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Investar Holding to cross-verify your projections. Investar Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Investar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Investar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Investar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Investar Holding Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Investar Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Investar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Investar Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Investar Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
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Investar Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Investar Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Investar Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.99 and 29.55, respectively. We have considered Investar Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Investar Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Investar Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2509 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5845 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0229 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.2387 |
Predictive Modules for Investar Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Investar Holding Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Investar Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Investar Holding After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Investar Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Investar Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Investar Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Investar Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Investar Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Investar Holding's historical news coverage. Investar Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.53 and 29.09, respectively. We have considered Investar Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Investar Holding is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Investar Holding Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Investar Holding Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Investar Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Investar Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Investar Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.28 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
27.95 | 27.81 | 0.50 |
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Investar Holding Hype Timeline
Investar Holding Corp is currently traded for 27.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Investar is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 27.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.5%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Investar Holding is about 859.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.98. About 47.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.45. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Investar Holding Corp last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Investar Holding to cross-verify your projections.Investar Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Investar Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Investar Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Investar Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Investar Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IFS | Intercorp Financial Services | (0.16) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.10 | 3.68 | (2.88) | 5.62 | |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | (0.12) | 10 per month | 1.08 | 0.07 | 2.71 | (1.87) | 5.50 | |
| UBSI | United Bankshares | 0.21 | 15 per month | 1.01 | 0.11 | 3.05 | (1.94) | 8.03 | |
| AVAL | Grupo Aval | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.47 | 0.14 | 2.79 | (2.90) | 7.37 | |
| OZK | Bank Ozk | (0.02) | 10 per month | 1.09 | (0) | 2.43 | (1.53) | 6.11 | |
| GBCI | Glacier Bancorp | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.05 | 3.25 | (1.94) | 8.19 | |
| AX | Axos Financial | 1.27 | 12 per month | 1.45 | 0.10 | 3.18 | (2.60) | 6.63 | |
| HOMB | Home BancShares | (0.02) | 19 per month | 1.13 | (0) | 2.16 | (1.75) | 5.65 | |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares | (0.01) | 7 per month | 1.16 | 0.08 | 3.79 | (2.02) | 7.84 | |
| IBOC | International Bancshares | 0.48 | 11 per month | 1.43 | (0.02) | 2.75 | (2.10) | 7.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Investar Holding
For every potential investor in Investar, whether a beginner or expert, Investar Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Investar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Investar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Investar Holding's price trends.Investar Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Investar Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Investar Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Investar Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Investar Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Investar Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Investar Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Investar Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Investar Holding Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1556.92 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.34) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.35 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.55) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.30) |
Investar Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Investar Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Investar Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting investar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6295 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.12 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3963 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Investar Holding
The number of cover stories for Investar Holding depends on current market conditions and Investar Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Investar Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Investar Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Investar Stock Analysis
When running Investar Holding's price analysis, check to measure Investar Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Investar Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Investar Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Investar Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Investar Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Investar Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.