Lincoln Electric Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LECO Stock | USD 208.51 5.32 2.62% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lincoln Electric Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 195.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.22. Lincoln Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Lincoln Electric's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lincoln Electric's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lincoln Electric fundamentals over time.
Lincoln |
Lincoln Electric Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Lincoln Electric's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1994-12-31 | Previous Quarter 272.7 M | Current Value 404.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 124.3 M |
Lincoln Electric Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lincoln Electric Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 195.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.28, mean absolute percentage error of 16.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lincoln Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lincoln Electric's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lincoln Electric Stock Forecast Pattern
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Lincoln Electric Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lincoln Electric's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lincoln Electric's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 193.74 and 197.67, respectively. We have considered Lincoln Electric's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lincoln Electric stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lincoln Electric stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.7784 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.2777 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 203.2155 |
Predictive Modules for Lincoln Electric
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lincoln Electric Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lincoln Electric's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lincoln Electric
For every potential investor in Lincoln, whether a beginner or expert, Lincoln Electric's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lincoln Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lincoln. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lincoln Electric's price trends.Lincoln Electric Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lincoln Electric stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lincoln Electric could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lincoln Electric by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lincoln Electric Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lincoln Electric's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lincoln Electric's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Lincoln Electric Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lincoln Electric stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lincoln Electric shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lincoln Electric stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lincoln Electric Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10648.26 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7338 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 205.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 206.82 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 5.19 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 5.32 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.98 |
Lincoln Electric Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lincoln Electric's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lincoln Electric's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lincoln stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Lincoln Electric
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Lincoln Electric position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Lincoln Electric will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Lincoln Stock
Moving against Lincoln Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Lincoln Electric could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Lincoln Electric when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Lincoln Electric - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Lincoln Electric Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Lincoln Electric is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Lincoln Electric moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Lincoln Electric Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Lincoln Electric can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lincoln Electric to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lincoln Electric. If investors know Lincoln will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lincoln Electric listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Dividend Share 2.84 | Earnings Share 8.37 | Revenue Per Share 71.184 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Lincoln Electric Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lincoln that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lincoln Electric's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lincoln Electric's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lincoln Electric's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lincoln Electric's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lincoln Electric's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lincoln Electric is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lincoln Electric's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.