Lincoln Electric Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LECO Stock | USD 268.24 0.62 0.23% |
Lincoln Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Lincoln Electric's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lincoln Electric's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lincoln Electric fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Lincoln Electric's stock price is about 63. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lincoln, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.249 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.5956 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.7451 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.812 | Wall Street Target Price 267.5556 |
Using Lincoln Electric hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lincoln Electric Holdings from the perspective of Lincoln Electric response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lincoln Electric using Lincoln Electric's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lincoln using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lincoln Electric's stock price.
Lincoln Electric Short Interest
An investor who is long Lincoln Electric may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lincoln Electric and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lincoln Electric with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 226.5968 | Short Percent 0.0116 | Short Ratio 2.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 646.5 K | 50 Day MA 246.2474 |
Lincoln Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lincoln Electric Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 268.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 175.17.Lincoln Electric Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lincoln Electric's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lincoln. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lincoln can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lincoln Electric Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lincoln Electric's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lincoln Electric.
Lincoln Electric Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
Lincoln Electric's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lincoln Electric Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lincoln Electric's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lincoln Electric stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lincoln Electric's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lincoln Electric Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 268.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 175.17. Lincoln Electric after-hype prediction price | USD 267.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lincoln Electric to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lincoln contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lincoln Electric Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Lincoln Electric trading at USD 268.24, that is roughly USD 0.0855 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lincoln Electric's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lincoln Electric Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Lincoln Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lincoln Electric's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lincoln Electric's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lincoln Electric stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lincoln Electric's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lincoln Electric's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lincoln Electric is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lincoln. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lincoln Electric Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lincoln price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lincoln using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lincoln charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lincoln Electric Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lincoln Electric Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 268.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.92, mean absolute percentage error of 15.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 175.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lincoln Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lincoln Electric's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lincoln Electric Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lincoln Electric | Lincoln Electric Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lincoln Electric Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lincoln Electric's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lincoln Electric's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 266.65 and 269.83, respectively. We have considered Lincoln Electric's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lincoln Electric stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lincoln Electric stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0266 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6768 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9195 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 175.17 |
Predictive Modules for Lincoln Electric
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lincoln Electric Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lincoln Electric's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lincoln Electric After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lincoln Electric at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lincoln Electric or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lincoln Electric, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lincoln Electric Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lincoln Electric's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lincoln Electric's historical news coverage. Lincoln Electric's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 265.71 and 268.89, respectively. We have considered Lincoln Electric's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lincoln Electric is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lincoln Electric Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lincoln Electric Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lincoln Electric is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lincoln Electric backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lincoln Electric, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.59 | 0.94 | 0.11 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
268.24 | 267.30 | 0.35 |
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Lincoln Electric Hype Timeline
Lincoln Electric Holdings is now traded for 268.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.94, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Lincoln is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 267.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 47.46%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Lincoln Electric is about 410.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 268.35. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.73. Lincoln Electric Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.34. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of June 2011. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lincoln Electric to cross-verify your projections.Lincoln Electric Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lincoln Electric's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lincoln Electric's future price movements. Getting to know how Lincoln Electric's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lincoln Electric may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RBC | RBC Bearings Incorporated | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.79 | 0.20 | 3.01 | (1.75) | 8.53 | |
| SWK | Stanley Black Decker | (0.48) | 10 per month | 1.60 | 0.06 | 4.60 | (2.67) | 10.50 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | (5.59) | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.23 | 4.34 | (2.56) | 10.50 | |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 1.04 | 10 per month | 0.73 | 0.16 | 2.68 | (1.79) | 6.54 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | 4.02 | 11 per month | 1.77 | 0.18 | 3.54 | (3.42) | 16.49 | |
| NDSN | Nordson | 5.14 | 7 per month | 0.71 | 0.16 | 2.33 | (1.31) | 4.63 | |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | (0.13) | 11 per month | 0.92 | 0.19 | 4.54 | (1.96) | 10.82 | |
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | 0.30 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.94 | (3.40) | 15.38 | |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corp | (1.27) | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.02 | 2.52 | (1.68) | 6.45 | |
| MLI | Mueller Industries | 0.87 | 7 per month | 0.79 | 0.31 | 2.11 | (1.65) | 4.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lincoln Electric
For every potential investor in Lincoln, whether a beginner or expert, Lincoln Electric's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lincoln Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lincoln. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lincoln Electric's price trends.Lincoln Electric Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lincoln Electric stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lincoln Electric could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lincoln Electric by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lincoln Electric Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lincoln Electric stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lincoln Electric shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lincoln Electric stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lincoln Electric Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lincoln Electric Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lincoln Electric's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lincoln Electric's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lincoln stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lincoln Electric
The number of cover stories for Lincoln Electric depends on current market conditions and Lincoln Electric's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lincoln Electric is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lincoln Electric's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lincoln Electric Short Properties
Lincoln Electric's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lincoln Electric's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lincoln Electric Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lincoln Electric's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lincoln Electric's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 377.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lincoln Electric to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Will Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sector continue expanding? Could Lincoln diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lincoln Electric. Expected growth trajectory for Lincoln significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lincoln Electric data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.249 | Dividend Share 3 | Earnings Share 9.34 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.079 |
Understanding Lincoln Electric Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Lincoln's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Lincoln Electric's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Lincoln Electric's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Lincoln Electric's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lincoln Electric represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Lincoln Electric's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.