Merchants Bancorp Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MBIN Stock | USD 41.46 1.02 2.52% |
Merchants Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Merchants Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Merchants Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Merchants Bancorp fundamentals over time.
The relative strength indicator of Merchants Bancorp's stock price is about 68. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Merchants, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0967 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.08 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.4433 | Wall Street Target Price 41.3333 |
Using Merchants Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merchants Bancorp from the perspective of Merchants Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Merchants Bancorp using Merchants Bancorp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Merchants using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Merchants Bancorp's stock price.
Merchants Bancorp Short Interest
An investor who is long Merchants Bancorp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Merchants Bancorp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Merchants Bancorp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 32.8303 | Short Percent 0.0531 | Short Ratio 9.86 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 34.2734 |
Merchants Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 41.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.18.Merchants Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Merchants Bancorp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Merchants. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merchants can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merchants Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Merchants Bancorp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Merchants Bancorp.
Merchants Bancorp Implied Volatility | 1.36 |
Merchants Bancorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merchants Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merchants Bancorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merchants Bancorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merchants Bancorp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 41.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.18. Merchants Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 42.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Merchants contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Merchants Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.085% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Merchants Bancorp trading at USD 41.46, that is roughly USD 0.0352 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Merchants Bancorp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Merchants Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 1.36%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Merchants Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Merchants Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Merchants Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Merchants Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Merchants Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Merchants Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Merchants Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Merchants. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Merchants Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Merchants price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merchants using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merchants charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Merchants Bancorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 41.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merchants Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merchants Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Merchants Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Merchants Bancorp | Merchants Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Merchants Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Merchants Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merchants Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.68 and 44.24, respectively. We have considered Merchants Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merchants Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merchants Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0467 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1669 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5931 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.18 |
Predictive Modules for Merchants Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merchants Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Merchants Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Merchants Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Merchants Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Merchants Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Merchants Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Merchants Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Merchants Bancorp's historical news coverage. Merchants Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.36 and 44.92, respectively. We have considered Merchants Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Merchants Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Merchants Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Merchants Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Merchants Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merchants Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Merchants Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 2.78 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.46 | 42.14 | 1.64 |
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Merchants Bancorp Hype Timeline
Merchants Bancorp is now traded for 41.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.68, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Merchants is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.14 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.64%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.5%. The volatility of related hype on Merchants Bancorp is about 1287.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.57. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.2 B. Net Income was 320.39 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 597.25 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merchants Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.Merchants Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Merchants Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Merchants Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Merchants Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Merchants Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FRME | First Merchants | (0.23) | 10 per month | 1.25 | 0.02 | 2.80 | (1.59) | 8.32 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | 1.53 | 8 per month | 1.37 | 0.11 | 2.62 | (2.81) | 9.17 | |
| SRCE | 1st Source | (0.27) | 7 per month | 1.06 | 0.06 | 2.22 | (2.38) | 5.76 | |
| GABC | German American Bancorp | (0.43) | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.03 | 3.31 | (2.78) | 7.83 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | (0.28) | 10 per month | 1.03 | 0.11 | 3.41 | (1.67) | 7.18 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.46 | (2.96) | 7.97 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | 0.05 | 8 per month | 1.24 | 0.04 | 2.85 | (2.64) | 9.76 | |
| WAFD | Washington Federal | 0.25 | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.07 | 3.19 | (2.74) | 7.68 | |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | 2.07 | 9 per month | 1.50 | 0.08 | 5.13 | (2.50) | 9.65 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.61) | 10 per month | 0.73 | 0.15 | 2.67 | (1.75) | 8.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Merchants Bancorp
For every potential investor in Merchants, whether a beginner or expert, Merchants Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merchants Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merchants. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merchants Bancorp's price trends.Merchants Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merchants Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merchants Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merchants Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Merchants Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merchants Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merchants Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merchants Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merchants Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Merchants Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Merchants Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merchants Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merchants stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Variance | 7.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Merchants Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Merchants Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Merchants Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Merchants Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Merchants Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merchants Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Merchants Stock, please use our How to Invest in Merchants Bancorp guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Will Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sector continue expanding? Could Merchants diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merchants Bancorp. Expected growth trajectory for Merchants significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Merchants Bancorp data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.17) | Earnings Share 4.35 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets |
Merchants Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Merchants's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Merchants Bancorp's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Merchants Bancorp's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Merchants Bancorp's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Merchants Bancorp represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Merchants Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.