Merchants Bancorp Stock Price Patterns
| MBIN Stock | USD 46.42 0.82 1.74% |
Momentum 72
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0967 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.2367 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.7533 | Wall Street Target Price 47.3333 |
Using Merchants Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merchants Bancorp from the perspective of Merchants Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Merchants Bancorp using Merchants Bancorp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Merchants using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Merchants Bancorp's stock price.
Merchants Bancorp Short Interest
An investor who is long Merchants Bancorp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Merchants Bancorp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Merchants Bancorp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 33.5357 | Short Percent 0.0487 | Short Ratio 8.6 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 37.1533 |
Merchants Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Merchants Bancorp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Merchants. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merchants can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merchants Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Merchants Bancorp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Merchants Bancorp.
Merchants Bancorp Implied Volatility | 0.72 |
Merchants Bancorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merchants Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merchants Bancorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merchants Bancorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merchants Bancorp's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Merchants Bancorp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Merchants because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Merchants Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 47.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Merchants contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Merchants Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.045% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Merchants Bancorp trading at USD 46.42, that is roughly USD 0.0209 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Merchants Bancorp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Merchants Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 0.72%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Merchants | Build AI portfolio with Merchants Stock |
Merchants Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Merchants Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Merchants Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Merchants Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Merchants Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Merchants Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Merchants Bancorp's historical news coverage. Merchants Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.97 and 50.73, respectively. We have considered Merchants Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Merchants Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Merchants Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Merchants Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Merchants Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merchants Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Merchants Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.79 | 2.88 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
46.42 | 47.85 | 1.29 |
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Merchants Bancorp Hype Timeline
Merchants Bancorp is now traded for 46.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Merchants is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 47.85 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.29%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.79%. The volatility of related hype on Merchants Bancorp is about 2666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 46.51. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.37 B. Net Income was 320.39 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 563.69 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Merchants Bancorp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Merchants Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Merchants Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Merchants Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Merchants Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Merchants Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FRME | First Merchants | 0.61 | 11 per month | 0.99 | 0.14 | 2.84 | (1.50) | 8.32 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | (1.77) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.10 | 2.62 | (1.63) | 9.20 | |
| SRCE | 1st Source | (0.21) | 7 per month | 0.84 | 0.15 | 2.21 | (2.02) | 5.76 | |
| GABC | German American Bancorp | 0.73 | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.08 | 3.30 | (2.03) | 7.84 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | (0.65) | 7 per month | 1.05 | 0.1 | 3.41 | (1.65) | 7.18 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 0.51 | 6 per month | 1.22 | 0.03 | 3.46 | (2.49) | 7.37 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | 1.04 | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.09 | 2.85 | (1.90) | 9.76 | |
| WAFD | Washington Federal | 0.61 | 9 per month | 1.39 | 0.07 | 3.22 | (2.76) | 7.68 | |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.47 | 0.15 | 5.13 | (2.50) | 9.72 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | 0.27 | 7 per month | 0.73 | 0.17 | 2.67 | (1.76) | 13.38 |
Merchants Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Merchants price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merchants using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merchants charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Merchants Bancorp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Merchants Bancorp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Merchants Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Merchants Bancorp based on analysis of Merchants Bancorp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Merchants Bancorp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Merchants Bancorp's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0264 | 0.0313 | 0.0117 | 0.0185 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.55 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.09 |
Pair Trading with Merchants Bancorp
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Merchants Bancorp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Merchants Bancorp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Merchants Stock
| 0.81 | WSBF | Waterstone Financial Normal Trading | PairCorr |
Moving against Merchants Stock
| 0.71 | PFSI | PennyMac Finl Svcs | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | BETR | Better Home Finance | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | RDN | Radian Group Earnings Call Today | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | MTG | MGIC Investment Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Merchants Bancorp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Merchants Bancorp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Merchants Bancorp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Merchants Bancorp to buy it.
The correlation of Merchants Bancorp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Merchants Bancorp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Merchants Bancorp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Merchants Bancorp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Merchants Bancorp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Merchants Stock, please use our How to Invest in Merchants Bancorp guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Will Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sector continue expanding? Could Merchants diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merchants Bancorp. Expected growth trajectory for Merchants significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Merchants Bancorp data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 3.78 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
Merchants Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Merchants's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Merchants Bancorp's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Merchants Bancorp's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Merchants Bancorp's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Merchants Bancorp represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Merchants Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.