Northwest Bancshares Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NWBI Stock | USD 13.34 0.10 0.76% |
Northwest Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Northwest Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 6th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Northwest Bancshares' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.194 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3038 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.3086 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.41 | Wall Street Target Price 13.75 |
Using Northwest Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northwest Bancshares from the perspective of Northwest Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northwest Bancshares using Northwest Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northwest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northwest Bancshares' stock price.
Northwest Bancshares Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Northwest Bancshares' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Northwest. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Northwest Bancshares stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 12.3899 | Short Percent 0.038 | Short Ratio 5.54 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.7 M | 50 Day MA 12.4474 |
Northwest Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northwest Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 13.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.40.Northwest Bancshares Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Northwest Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Northwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northwest Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Northwest Bancshares' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Northwest Bancshares.
Northwest Bancshares Implied Volatility | 0.84 |
Northwest Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northwest Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northwest Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northwest Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northwest Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northwest Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 13.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.40. Northwest Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 13.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Northwest | Build AI portfolio with Northwest Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northwest contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northwest Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0525% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Northwest Bancshares trading at USD 13.34, that is roughly USD 0.007003 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northwest Bancshares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northwest Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 0.84%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Northwest Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Northwest Bancshares' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Northwest Bancshares' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Northwest Bancshares stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Northwest Bancshares' open interest, investors have to compare it to Northwest Bancshares' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Northwest Bancshares is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Northwest. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Northwest Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Northwest Bancshares Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northwest Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 13.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northwest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northwest Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Northwest Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Northwest Bancshares | Northwest Bancshares Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Northwest Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Northwest Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northwest Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.81 and 14.87, respectively. We have considered Northwest Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northwest Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northwest Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.9063 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.029 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.14 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.4 |
Predictive Modules for Northwest Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northwest Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Northwest Bancshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northwest Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northwest Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northwest Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northwest Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northwest Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northwest Bancshares' historical news coverage. Northwest Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.81 and 14.87, respectively. We have considered Northwest Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northwest Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northwest Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northwest Bancshares Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northwest Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northwest Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northwest Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.53 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.34 | 13.34 | 0.00 |
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Northwest Bancshares Hype Timeline
Northwest Bancshares is now traded for 13.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. Northwest is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Northwest Bancshares is about 123.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.64. About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.02. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Northwest Bancshares has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.87. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of February 2026. The firm had 225:100 split on the 18th of December 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northwest Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.Northwest Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northwest Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northwest Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Northwest Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northwest Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CHCO | City Holding | (0.77) | 11 per month | 1.02 | 0.03 | 1.91 | (1.54) | 6.66 | |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares | 10.01 | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.14 | 3.09 | (2.36) | 13.07 | |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | 0.17 | 9 per month | 0.84 | 0.18 | 2.94 | (1.34) | 8.06 | |
| OFG | OFG Bancorp | (0.95) | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0 | 2.23 | (1.48) | 12.38 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.61 | 0.18 | 2.67 | (1.28) | 11.51 | |
| CCB | Coastal Financial Corp | 2.37 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.33 | (5.20) | 13.11 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | 0.67 | 9 per month | 1.03 | 0.11 | 3.41 | (1.67) | 7.18 | |
| SYBT | Stock Yards Bancorp | 0.32 | 11 per month | 1.35 | 0.03 | 3.29 | (1.87) | 9.60 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 2.22 | 6 per month | 1.18 | 0.04 | 3.46 | (2.49) | 7.37 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | (1.78) | 8 per month | 1.28 | 0.13 | 2.62 | (1.64) | 9.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Northwest Bancshares
For every potential investor in Northwest, whether a beginner or expert, Northwest Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northwest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northwest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northwest Bancshares' price trends.Northwest Bancshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northwest Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northwest Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northwest Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northwest Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northwest Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northwest Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northwest Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northwest Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13706.94 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5556 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 |
Northwest Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northwest Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northwest Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northwest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9838 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9678 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Northwest Bancshares
The number of cover stories for Northwest Bancshares depends on current market conditions and Northwest Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northwest Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northwest Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Northwest Bancshares Short Properties
Northwest Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when Northwest Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northwest Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northwest Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northwest Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 146.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northwest Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Northwest Stock please use our How to Invest in Northwest Bancshares guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is there potential for Regional Banks market expansion? Will Northwest introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northwest Bancshares. Anticipated expansion of Northwest directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Northwest Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.194 | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 0.92 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.251 |
Northwest Bancshares's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Northwest's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Northwest Bancshares' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since Northwest Bancshares' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Northwest Bancshares' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Northwest Bancshares should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Northwest Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.