Oak Valley Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OVLY Stock | USD 31.95 0.04 0.13% |
Oak Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Oak Valley's stock price is slightly above 61. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Oak, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.005 |
Using Oak Valley hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oak Valley Bancorp from the perspective of Oak Valley response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Oak Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oak Valley Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.80.Oak Valley Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oak Valley's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oak. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oak can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oak Valley Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Oak Valley's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Oak Valley.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oak Valley Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.80. Oak Valley after-hype prediction price | USD 31.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oak Valley to cross-verify your projections. Oak Valley Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oak price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oak using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oak charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oak Valley Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oak Valley Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 31.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oak Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oak Valley's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oak Valley Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oak Valley | Oak Valley Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oak Valley Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oak Valley's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oak Valley's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.49 and 33.41, respectively. We have considered Oak Valley's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oak Valley stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oak Valley stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.431 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0702 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3246 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.8 |
Predictive Modules for Oak Valley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oak Valley Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Oak Valley After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oak Valley at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oak Valley or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oak Valley, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oak Valley Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oak Valley's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oak Valley's historical news coverage. Oak Valley's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.39 and 33.31, respectively. We have considered Oak Valley's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oak Valley is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oak Valley Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oak Valley Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oak Valley is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oak Valley backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oak Valley, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.46 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.95 | 31.85 | 0.31 |
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Oak Valley Hype Timeline
Oak Valley Bancorp is now traded for 31.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Oak is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 31.85. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Oak Valley is about 4866.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.94. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.29. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Oak Valley Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 28th of July 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 17th of January 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oak Valley to cross-verify your projections.Oak Valley Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oak Valley's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oak Valley's future price movements. Getting to know how Oak Valley's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oak Valley may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corp | 0.22 | 7 per month | 0.75 | 0.12 | 2.68 | (1.54) | 5.37 | |
| FUNC | First United | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.82 | 0 | 2.92 | (2.74) | 11.47 | |
| LCNB | LCNB Corporation | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.37 | 0.07 | 2.81 | (2.13) | 8.02 | |
| CFFI | CF Financial | 0.19 | 9 per month | 1.66 | 0.05 | 3.53 | (2.75) | 8.22 | |
| FVCB | FVCBankcorp | (0.02) | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.13 | 2.70 | (2.04) | 9.86 | |
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares | 0.74 | 11 per month | 2.15 | 0.07 | 4.04 | (4.01) | 12.58 | |
| FDBC | Fidelity DD Bancorp | (0.90) | 8 per month | 1.63 | (0.02) | 3.52 | (2.73) | 9.91 | |
| WNEB | Western New England | (0.35) | 10 per month | 0.94 | 0.12 | 3.24 | (2.14) | 7.72 | |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | (0.32) | 6 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 3.45 | (1.95) | 8.74 | |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial | 0.34 | 7 per month | 1.32 | 0.03 | 2.61 | (1.96) | 9.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oak Valley
For every potential investor in Oak, whether a beginner or expert, Oak Valley's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oak Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oak. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oak Valley's price trends.Oak Valley Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oak Valley stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oak Valley could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oak Valley by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oak Valley Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oak Valley stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oak Valley shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oak Valley stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oak Valley Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Oak Valley Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oak Valley's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oak Valley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oak stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8031 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6449 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oak Valley
The number of cover stories for Oak Valley depends on current market conditions and Oak Valley's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oak Valley is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oak Valley's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Oak Stock Analysis
When running Oak Valley's price analysis, check to measure Oak Valley's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oak Valley is operating at the current time. Most of Oak Valley's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oak Valley's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oak Valley's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oak Valley to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.