Pathfinder Bancorp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PBHC Stock | USD 14.14 0.30 2.17% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pathfinder Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.94. Pathfinder Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pathfinder Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of Pathfinder Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Pathfinder Bancorp's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.98) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) |
Using Pathfinder Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pathfinder Bancorp from the perspective of Pathfinder Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pathfinder Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.94. Pathfinder Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 13.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Pathfinder Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pathfinder price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pathfinder using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pathfinder charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pathfinder Bancorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pathfinder Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pathfinder Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pathfinder Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pathfinder Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Pathfinder Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pathfinder Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pathfinder Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.23 and 15.91, respectively. We have considered Pathfinder Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pathfinder Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pathfinder Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3492 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0254 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1657 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.9449 |
Predictive Modules for Pathfinder Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pathfinder Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pathfinder Bancorp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pathfinder Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pathfinder Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pathfinder Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pathfinder Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pathfinder Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pathfinder Bancorp's historical news coverage. Pathfinder Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.03 and 15.69, respectively. We have considered Pathfinder Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pathfinder Bancorp is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pathfinder Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pathfinder Bancorp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pathfinder Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pathfinder Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pathfinder Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.84 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.14 | 13.86 | 0.14 |
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Pathfinder Bancorp Hype Timeline
Pathfinder Bancorp is at this time traded for 14.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Pathfinder is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Pathfinder Bancorp is about 6571.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.14. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 83.48 M. Net Income was 3.38 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 39.02 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.Pathfinder Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pathfinder Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pathfinder Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Pathfinder Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pathfinder Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | (0.19) | 12 per month | 0.70 | 0.21 | 2.39 | (1.48) | 5.78 | |
| AUBN | Auburn National Bancorporation | 0.60 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.68 | (4.38) | 17.69 | |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp | 0.10 | 26 per month | 0.59 | (0.02) | 1.38 | (0.89) | 5.02 | |
| CFSB | CFSB Bancorp | 0.01 | 5 per month | 0.32 | (0.14) | 0.85 | (0.56) | 3.27 | |
| WSBK | Winchester Bancorp Common | 0.04 | 1 per month | 0.49 | 0.12 | 1.75 | (1.25) | 7.47 | |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.80 | (0.05) | 1.34 | (1.04) | 4.66 | |
| FDSB | Fifth District Bancorp | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.32 | 0.12 | 1.28 | (1.05) | 3.97 | |
| DTSQ | DT Cloud Star | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.81 | (0.05) | 1.50 | (1.39) | 6.38 | |
| UBCP | United Bancorp | (0.08) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.01 | 2.86 | (2.56) | 8.48 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | (0.25) | 8 per month | 1.12 | (0.04) | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pathfinder Bancorp
For every potential investor in Pathfinder, whether a beginner or expert, Pathfinder Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pathfinder Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pathfinder. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pathfinder Bancorp's price trends.Pathfinder Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pathfinder Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pathfinder Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pathfinder Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pathfinder Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pathfinder Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pathfinder Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pathfinder Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pathfinder Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pathfinder Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pathfinder stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pathfinder Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Pathfinder Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Pathfinder Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pathfinder Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pathfinder Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pathfinder Bancorp Short Properties
Pathfinder Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pathfinder Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pathfinder Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pathfinder Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pathfinder Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 300.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Pathfinder Stock refer to our How to Trade Pathfinder Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pathfinder Bancorp. If investors know Pathfinder will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pathfinder Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.98) | Earnings Share 1.2 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Pathfinder Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pathfinder that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pathfinder Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pathfinder Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pathfinder Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pathfinder Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pathfinder Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pathfinder Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pathfinder Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.