PRA Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PRAA Stock | USD 12.79 0.17 1.31% |
PRA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PRA stock prices and determine the direction of PRA Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PRA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the value of RSI of PRA's share price is approaching 35 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling PRA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using PRA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PRA Group from the perspective of PRA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PRA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 12.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.82. PRA after-hype prediction price | USD 12.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PRA to cross-verify your projections. PRA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PRA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PRA using various technical indicators. When you analyze PRA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PRA Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PRA Group on the next trading day is expected to be 12.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PRA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PRA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PRA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PRA | PRA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PRA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PRA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PRA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.35 and 16.16, respectively. We have considered PRA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PRA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PRA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.154 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4206 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0272 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.8151 |
Predictive Modules for PRA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PRA Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PRA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PRA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PRA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PRA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PRA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PRA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PRA's historical news coverage. PRA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.88 and 16.70, respectively. We have considered PRA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PRA is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PRA Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
PRA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PRA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PRA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PRA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 3.91 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.79 | 12.79 | 0.00 |
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PRA Hype Timeline
PRA Group is at this time traded for 12.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. PRA is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on PRA is about 175950.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.79. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PRA Group recorded a loss per share of 8.74. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of May 2007. The firm had 3:1 split on the 2nd of August 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PRA to cross-verify your projections.PRA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PRA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PRA's future price movements. Getting to know how PRA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PRA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | 0.15 | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.78 | (2.52) | 5.10 | |
| ACIC | American Coastal Insurance | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.82 | (2.36) | 8.47 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.65 | (0.02) | 1.23 | (1.03) | 3.47 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | (0.96) | 4 per month | 1.81 | 0.17 | 6.49 | (1.83) | 14.42 | |
| FUFU | BitFuFu Class A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.43 | (8.46) | 22.36 | |
| NPB | Northpointe Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.59 | 0.06 | 3.68 | (3.05) | 8.26 | |
| GAM | General American Investors | 1.12 | 13 per month | 0.32 | 0.09 | 1.04 | (0.83) | 2.57 | |
| GDOT | Green Dot | (0.07) | 4 per month | 1.51 | 0.03 | 3.78 | (2.28) | 10.17 | |
| BWB | Bridgewater Bancshares | (0.16) | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.06 | 3.22 | (2.33) | 9.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for PRA
For every potential investor in PRA, whether a beginner or expert, PRA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PRA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PRA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PRA's price trends.PRA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PRA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PRA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PRA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PRA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PRA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PRA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PRA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PRA Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 31537.33 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.30) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.81 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.17) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.09 |
PRA Risk Indicators
The analysis of PRA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PRA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.91 | |||
| Variance | 15.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PRA
The number of cover stories for PRA depends on current market conditions and PRA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PRA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PRA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PRA Short Properties
PRA's future price predictability will typically decrease when PRA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PRA Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PRA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PRA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 161.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PRA to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PRA. Anticipated expansion of PRA directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive PRA assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of PRA Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PRA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PRA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PRA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PRA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PRA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between PRA's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding PRA should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, PRA's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.