United Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| UBCP Stock | USD 13.36 0.40 2.91% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of United Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.25. United Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although United Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of United Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of United Bancorp fundamentals over time.
United |
United Bancorp Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the United Bancorp's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1992-03-31 | Previous Quarter 37.6 M | Current Value 37.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 22 M |
United Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of January 2025
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of United Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Bancorp | United Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
United Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.22 and 17.28, respectively. We have considered United Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2234 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2992 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.2485 |
Predictive Modules for United Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for United Bancorp
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Bancorp's price trends.View United Bancorp Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of United Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of United Bancorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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United Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
United Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of United Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Variance | 8.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with United Bancorp
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if United Bancorp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in United Bancorp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against United Stock
| 0.42 | KB | KB Financial Group | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | NU | Nu Holdings Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.38 | TFC-PO | Truist Financial Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | TFC-PR | Truist Financial Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.34 | WF | Woori Financial Group | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to United Bancorp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace United Bancorp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back United Bancorp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling United Bancorp to buy it.
The correlation of United Bancorp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as United Bancorp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if United Bancorp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for United Bancorp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure United Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of United Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.