United Security Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| UBFO Stock | USD 10.65 0.06 0.56% |
United Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although United Security's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of United Security's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of United Security fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of United Security's stock price is about 63. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling United, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.045 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 |
Using United Security hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Security Bancshares from the perspective of United Security response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United Security using United Security's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United Security's stock price.
United Security Implied Volatility | 0.98 |
United Security's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Security Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Security's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Security stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Security's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of United Security Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 10.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.72. United Security after-hype prediction price | USD 10.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Security to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current United contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that United Security Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0613% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With United Security trading at USD 10.65, that is roughly USD 0.006523 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating United Security's daily price movement you should consider acquiring United Security Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 0.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 United Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast United Security's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in United Security's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for United Security stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current United Security's open interest, investors have to compare it to United Security's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of United Security is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in United. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
United Security Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United Security Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of United Security Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 10.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Security's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United Security Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Security | United Security Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
United Security Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United Security's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Security's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.31 and 11.99, respectively. We have considered United Security's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Security stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Security stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7012 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0409 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1138 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.715 |
Predictive Modules for United Security
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Security Banc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.United Security After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United Security at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Security or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Security, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United Security Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United Security's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Security's historical news coverage. United Security's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.29 and 11.99, respectively. We have considered United Security's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United Security is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Security Banc is based on 3 months time horizon.
United Security Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United Security is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Security backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Security, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.34 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.65 | 10.64 | 0.09 |
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United Security Hype Timeline
United Security Banc is at this time traded for 10.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. United is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.64. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on United Security is about 336.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.54. About 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.34. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. United Security Banc last dividend was issued on the 3rd of October 2025. The entity had 101:100 split on the 5th of April 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Security to cross-verify your projections.United Security Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United Security's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Security's future price movements. Getting to know how United Security's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Security may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BVFL | BV Financial Common | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0.11 | 3.32 | (2.59) | 9.13 | |
| CZWI | Citizens Community Bancorp | 0.19 | 8 per month | 0.78 | 0.13 | 2.36 | (1.73) | 7.50 | |
| HNVR | Hanover Bancorp | (0.27) | 7 per month | 0.90 | 0.09 | 2.54 | (2.05) | 7.48 | |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc | (1.01) | 8 per month | 0.95 | 0.07 | 3.03 | (2.03) | 8.96 | |
| FCAP | First Capital | (2.96) | 8 per month | 2.49 | 0.09 | 6.23 | (4.26) | 17.93 | |
| PEBK | Peoples Bancorp of | 0.22 | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 3.60 | (2.01) | 7.98 | |
| INBK | First Internet Bancorp | 0.41 | 7 per month | 2.98 | 0.02 | 4.25 | (4.74) | 11.57 | |
| MRBK | Meridian Bank | (0.33) | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.17 | 4.14 | (2.24) | 8.97 | |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | (0.27) | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.07 | 3.70 | (2.21) | 8.84 | |
| CFBK | CF Bankshares | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.80 | 0.16 | 4.49 | (1.80) | 9.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for United Security
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Security's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Security's price trends.United Security Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Security stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Security could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Security by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Security Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Security stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Security shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Security stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Security Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
United Security Risk Indicators
The analysis of United Security's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Security's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7371 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5434 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for United Security
The number of cover stories for United Security depends on current market conditions and United Security's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United Security is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United Security's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Security to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Security. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Security listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.045 | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share 0.65 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 |
The market value of United Security Banc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Security's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Security's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Security's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Security's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Security's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Security is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Security's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.