Union Pacific Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| UNP Stock | USD 229.65 1.72 0.74% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Union Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 235.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 275.89. Union Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Union Pacific's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Union Pacific's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Union Pacific fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Union Pacific's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.095 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.998 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.7235 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.4626 | Wall Street Target Price 263.2083 |
Using Union Pacific hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Union Pacific from the perspective of Union Pacific response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Union Pacific using Union Pacific's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Union using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Union Pacific's stock price.
Union Pacific Short Interest
An investor who is long Union Pacific may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Union Pacific and may potentially protect profits, hedge Union Pacific with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 225.5625 | Short Percent 0.0419 | Short Ratio 8.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 22.3 M | 50 Day MA 230.511 |
Union Pacific Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Union Pacific's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Union. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Union can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Union Pacific. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Union Pacific Implied Volatility | 0.2 |
Union Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Union Pacific stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Union Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Union Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when Union Pacific's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Union Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 235.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 275.89. Union Pacific after-hype prediction price | USD 229.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Pacific to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Union contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Union Pacific will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0125% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Union Pacific trading at USD 229.65, that is roughly USD 0.0287 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Union Pacific's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Union Pacific options at the current volatility level of 0.2%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Union Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Union Pacific's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Union Pacific's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Union Pacific stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Union Pacific's open interest, investors have to compare it to Union Pacific's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Union Pacific is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Union. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Union Pacific Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Union price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Union using various technical indicators. When you analyze Union charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Union Pacific Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Union Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 235.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.52, mean absolute percentage error of 27.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 275.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Union Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Union Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Union Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Union Pacific | Union Pacific Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Union Pacific Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Union Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Union Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 234.21 and 236.65, respectively. We have considered Union Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Union Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Union Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4343 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.5228 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 275.8894 |
Predictive Modules for Union Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Union Pacific After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Union Pacific at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Union Pacific or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Union Pacific, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Union Pacific Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Union Pacific's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Union Pacific's historical news coverage. Union Pacific's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 228.05 and 230.49, respectively. We have considered Union Pacific's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Union Pacific is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Union Pacific is based on 3 months time horizon.
Union Pacific Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Union Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Union Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Union Pacific, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.22 | 0.59 | 0.08 | 5 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
229.65 | 229.27 | 0.17 |
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Union Pacific Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Union Pacific is traded for 229.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.59, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Union is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 229.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 20.61%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Union Pacific is about 148.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 229.73. About 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.61. Union Pacific recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.78. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 9th of June 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Pacific to cross-verify your projections.Union Pacific Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Union Pacific's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Union Pacific's future price movements. Getting to know how Union Pacific's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Union Pacific may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HON | Honeywell International | 0.17 | 8 per month | 1.00 | 0.1 | 2.22 | (1.97) | 9.46 | |
| NSC | Norfolk Southern | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.98 | (1.66) | 5.69 | |
| DE | Deere Company | 8.87 | 6 per month | 1.52 | 0.06 | 2.70 | (2.07) | 7.96 | |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 0.06 | 8 per month | 1.16 | 0.01 | 2.27 | (1.65) | 6.71 | |
| CSX | CSX Corporation | (0.09) | 9 per month | 1.24 | (0.06) | 1.98 | (2.05) | 5.63 | |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | 4.22 | 5 per month | 1.49 | 0.11 | 2.91 | (2.44) | 7.74 | |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway | (1.00) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.48 | (2.05) | 6.94 | |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing | 1.86 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.69 | (2.05) | 6.92 | |
| ETN | Eaton PLC | (3.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.12 | (4.15) | 8.67 | |
| PH | Parker Hannifin | (2.86) | 8 per month | 0.70 | 0.18 | 2.46 | (1.59) | 9.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for Union Pacific
For every potential investor in Union, whether a beginner or expert, Union Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Union Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Union. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Union Pacific's price trends.Union Pacific Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Union Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Union Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Union Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Union Pacific Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Union Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Union Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Union Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Union Pacific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0187 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.39) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 231.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 230.88 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 4.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.70) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.72) |
Union Pacific Risk Indicators
The analysis of Union Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Union Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting union stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8982 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Union Pacific
The number of cover stories for Union Pacific depends on current market conditions and Union Pacific's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Union Pacific is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Union Pacific's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Union Pacific Short Properties
Union Pacific's future price predictability will typically decrease when Union Pacific's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Union Pacific often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Union Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Union Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 608.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Additional Tools for Union Stock Analysis
When running Union Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Union Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Union Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Union Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Union Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Union Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Union Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.