VersaBank Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VBNK Stock | USD 15.77 0.44 2.71% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of VersaBank on the next trading day is expected to be 16.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.64. VersaBank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although VersaBank's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of VersaBank's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of VersaBank fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of VersaBank's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.2327 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.804 | Wall Street Target Price 14 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.2443 |
Using VersaBank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VersaBank from the perspective of VersaBank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards VersaBank using VersaBank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards VersaBank using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of VersaBank's stock price.
VersaBank Short Interest
An investor who is long VersaBank may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about VersaBank and may potentially protect profits, hedge VersaBank with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 11.9572 | Short Ratio 2.92 | Shares Short Prior Month 144.4 K | 50 Day MA 13.6092 | Shares Short 118.6 K |
VersaBank Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to VersaBank's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in VersaBank. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding VersaBank can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around VersaBank. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
VersaBank Implied Volatility | 1.15 |
VersaBank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of VersaBank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if VersaBank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that VersaBank stock will not fluctuate a lot when VersaBank's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of VersaBank on the next trading day is expected to be 16.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.64. VersaBank after-hype prediction price | USD 16.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current VersaBank contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that VersaBank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0719% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With VersaBank trading at USD 15.77, that is roughly USD 0.0113 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating VersaBank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring VersaBank options at the current volatility level of 1.15%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 VersaBank Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast VersaBank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in VersaBank's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for VersaBank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current VersaBank's open interest, investors have to compare it to VersaBank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of VersaBank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in VersaBank. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
VersaBank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VersaBank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VersaBank using various technical indicators. When you analyze VersaBank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VersaBank Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the VersaBank's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-10-31 | Previous Quarter 460.3 M | Current Value 581.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 101.1 M |
VersaBank Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VersaBank on the next trading day is expected to be 16.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VersaBank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VersaBank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VersaBank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VersaBank | VersaBank Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VersaBank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VersaBank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VersaBank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.74 and 18.65, respectively. We have considered VersaBank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VersaBank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VersaBank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5277 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2362 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.6432 |
Predictive Modules for VersaBank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VersaBank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VersaBank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VersaBank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VersaBank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of VersaBank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VersaBank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VersaBank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VersaBank's historical news coverage. VersaBank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.41 and 18.31, respectively. We have considered VersaBank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VersaBank is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VersaBank is based on 3 months time horizon.
VersaBank Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as VersaBank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VersaBank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VersaBank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 1.95 | 0.59 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.77 | 16.36 | 3.74 |
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VersaBank Hype Timeline
VersaBank is at this time traded for 15.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.59, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. VersaBank is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 16.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 154.76%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 3.74%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.47%. The volatility of related hype on VersaBank is about 3000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.74. VersaBank currently holds 103.52 M in liabilities. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VersaBank to cross-verify your projections.VersaBank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VersaBank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VersaBank's future price movements. Getting to know how VersaBank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VersaBank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FRBA | First Bank | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.05 | 3.29 | (1.82) | 8.53 | |
| CARE | Carter Bank and | (0.01) | 11 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 3.19 | (3.25) | 7.40 | |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp | (1.12) | 8 per month | 1.43 | (0.02) | 2.39 | (2.38) | 5.28 | |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.11 | 4.55 | (2.06) | 8.18 | |
| BSRR | Sierra Bancorp | (0.32) | 12 per month | 0.78 | 0.20 | 4.28 | (1.69) | 6.92 | |
| SFST | Southern First Bancshares | 1.12 | 8 per month | 0.87 | 0.25 | 4.48 | (2.12) | 10.52 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 0.05 | 10 per month | 0.95 | 0.09 | 2.75 | (2.00) | 7.93 | |
| GCBC | Greene County Bancorp | 0.76 | 8 per month | 1.73 | 0 | 4.59 | (3.30) | 10.25 | |
| WTBA | West Bancorporation | (0.31) | 9 per month | 1.18 | 0.1 | 3.05 | (1.89) | 7.97 | |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | (0.88) | 7 per month | 1.18 | 0.07 | 3.62 | (1.95) | 6.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for VersaBank
For every potential investor in VersaBank, whether a beginner or expert, VersaBank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VersaBank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VersaBank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VersaBank's price trends.VersaBank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VersaBank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VersaBank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VersaBank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VersaBank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VersaBank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VersaBank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VersaBank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VersaBank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1293.5 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.88) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.97 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.9 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.42) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.44) |
VersaBank Risk Indicators
The analysis of VersaBank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VersaBank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting versabank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7993 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6388 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VersaBank
The number of cover stories for VersaBank depends on current market conditions and VersaBank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VersaBank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VersaBank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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VersaBank Short Properties
VersaBank's future price predictability will typically decrease when VersaBank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of VersaBank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential VersaBank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VersaBank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 582.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VersaBank to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy VersaBank Stock please use our How to buy in VersaBank Stock guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of VersaBank. If investors know VersaBank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about VersaBank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Dividend Share 0.1 | Earnings Share 0.65 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.231 |
The market value of VersaBank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VersaBank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VersaBank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VersaBank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VersaBank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VersaBank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VersaBank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VersaBank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VersaBank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.