Valley National Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| VLY Stock | USD 13.49 0.19 1.43% |
Valley Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Valley National's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Valley National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valley National Bancorp from the perspective of Valley National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.15. Valley National after-hype prediction price | USD 13.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valley National to cross-verify your projections. Valley National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Valley National Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valley National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valley National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Valley National | Valley National Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Valley National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valley National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valley National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.93 and 15.05, respectively. We have considered Valley National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valley National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valley National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.4815 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0786 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1719 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0141 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.145 |
Predictive Modules for Valley National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valley National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Valley National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valley National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valley National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valley National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valley National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valley National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valley National's historical news coverage. Valley National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.11 and 15.23, respectively. We have considered Valley National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valley National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valley National Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valley National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valley National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valley National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valley National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.49 | 13.67 | 1.33 |
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Valley National Hype Timeline
On the 14th of February 2026 Valley National Bancorp is traded for 13.49. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Valley is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.67 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.33%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on Valley National is about 31200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.49. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.49 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 597.98 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.84 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valley National to cross-verify your projections.Valley National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valley National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valley National's future price movements. Getting to know how Valley National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valley National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| COLB | Columbia Banking System | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.70 | 0.20 | 3.16 | (1.46) | 7.42 | |
| SNV | Sinovus Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.62 | 0.24 | 3.24 | (1.40) | 5.98 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.32 | 0.1 | 3.19 | (2.02) | 8.66 | |
| BOKF | BOK Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.15 | 0.28 | 3.17 | (1.18) | 7.41 | |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.08 | 3.08 | (2.03) | 11.82 | |
| FNB | FNB Corp | (0.12) | 6 per month | 1.10 | 0.15 | 2.90 | (1.46) | 8.60 | |
| BMA | Banco Macro SA | 0.07 | 8 per month | 2.48 | 0.01 | 6.57 | (3.38) | 16.20 | |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | 0.08 | 2.40 | (1.59) | 5.74 | |
| HOMB | Home BancShares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.87 | 0.10 | 2.24 | (1.20) | 6.96 | |
| UBSI | United Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.55 | 0.24 | 3.05 | (1.27) | 8.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Valley National
For every potential investor in Valley, whether a beginner or expert, Valley National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valley Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valley National's price trends.Valley National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valley National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valley National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valley National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valley National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valley National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valley National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valley National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valley National Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Valley National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valley National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valley National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valley stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8342 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Variance | 2.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6959 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Valley National
The number of cover stories for Valley National depends on current market conditions and Valley National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valley National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valley National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valley National Short Properties
Valley National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valley National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valley National Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valley National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valley National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 563.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.5 B |
Additional Tools for Valley Stock Analysis
When running Valley National's price analysis, check to measure Valley National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valley National is operating at the current time. Most of Valley National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valley National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valley National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valley National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.