Natural Grocers By Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.68
| NGVC Stock | USD 45.60 9.35 25.79% |
Natural |
Natural Grocers Target Price Odds to finish below 3.68
The tendency of Natural Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.68 or more in 90 days |
| 45.60 | 90 days | 3.68 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natural Grocers to drop to $ 3.68 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Natural Grocers by probability density function shows the probability of Natural Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Natural Grocers by price to stay between $ 3.68 and its current price of $45.6 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.02 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Natural Grocers will likely underperform. Additionally Natural Grocers by has an alpha of 0.7743, implying that it can generate a 0.77 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Natural Grocers Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Natural Grocers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Grocers by. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Grocers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natural Grocers Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natural Grocers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natural Grocers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natural Grocers by, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natural Grocers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.77 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Natural Grocers Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natural Grocers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natural Grocers by can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natural Grocers by appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Natural Grocers by has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc Reports Q4 EPS of 0. and Revenue of 322.7 Million |
Natural Grocers Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natural Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natural Grocers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natural Grocers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 31.9 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.4 | |
| Shares Float | 13.6 M |
Natural Grocers Technical Analysis
Natural Grocers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natural Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natural Grocers by. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natural Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natural Grocers Predictive Forecast Models
Natural Grocers' time-series forecasting models is one of many Natural Grocers' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natural Grocers' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natural Grocers by
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natural Grocers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natural Grocers by help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natural Grocers by appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Natural Grocers by has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc Reports Q4 EPS of 0. and Revenue of 322.7 Million |
Check out Natural Grocers Backtesting, Natural Grocers Valuation, Natural Grocers Correlation, Natural Grocers Hype Analysis, Natural Grocers Volatility, Natural Grocers History as well as Natural Grocers Performance. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Grocers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.29 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 1.34 | Revenue Per Share 53.344 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 |
The market value of Natural Grocers by is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Grocers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Grocers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Grocers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Grocers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Grocers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Natural Grocers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Grocers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.