Full Truck Alliance Stock Performance

YMM Stock  USD 9.48  0.05  0.52%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.64, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Full Truck will likely underperform. At this point, Full Truck Alliance has a negative expected return of -0.21%. Please make sure to confirm Full Truck's treynor ratio, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the Accumulation Distribution and price action indicator , to decide if Full Truck Alliance performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Full Truck Alliance has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of uncertain performance in the last few months, the Stock's primary indicators remain very healthy which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm investors. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(0.52)
Five Day Return
(4.82)
Year To Date Return
(15.73)
Ten Year Return
(55.91)
All Time Return
(55.91)
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0203
Payout Ratio
0.0545
Forward Dividend Rate
0.19
Dividend Date
2025-10-27
Ex Dividend Date
2025-10-13
1
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Sponsored ADR YMM Shares Sold by Blue Creek Capital Management Ltd
11/21/2025
2
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Sponsored ADR Given Average Recommendation of Moderate Buy by Analysts - MarketBeat
12/17/2025
3
Is Institutional Repositioning Around Full Truck Alliance Reframing Its Role In Chinas Digital Freight - simplywall.st
01/05/2026
4
Assessing Full Truck Alliance Valuation After Bright Valley Capitals New US33.36 Million Investment - Sahm
01/08/2026
5
OVERSEA CHINESE BANKING Corp Ltd Buys 829,316 Shares of Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. Sponsored ADR YMM - MarketBeat
01/15/2026
6
Assessing Full Truck Alliance Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
01/20/2026
7
Morgan Stanleys Positive Stance Follows Full Truck Alliances Approval of Capital Return Plan
01/29/2026
8
Full Truck Alliance Transaction Revenue Expected to Surge Over 30 percent in 2026
01/30/2026
9
Full Truck Alliance Why Going Long At This Time Is Worth A Shot - Seeking Alpha
02/04/2026
10
YMM Stock Fell Nearly 20 percent Last Quarter, but One Fund Is Betting 116 Million on a Turnaround
02/12/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow6.9 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-2.4 B

Full Truck Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,095  in Full Truck Alliance on November 18, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (147.00) from holding Full Truck Alliance or give up 13.42% of portfolio value over 90 days. Full Truck Alliance is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 2.1862% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 19% of stocks are less volatile than Full, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Full Truck is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.9 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.1 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.16 per unit of volatility.

Full Truck Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Full Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 9.48 90 days 9.48 
under 95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Full Truck to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 95 (This Full Truck Alliance probability density function shows the probability of Full Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.64 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Full Truck will likely underperform. Additionally Full Truck Alliance has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Full Truck Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Full Truck

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Full Truck Alliance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.269.4511.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.4210.6112.80
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.0713.2614.72
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.141.201.31
Details

Full Truck Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Full Truck is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Full Truck's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Full Truck Alliance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Full Truck within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.51
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.64
σ
Overall volatility
0.83
Ir
Information ratio -0.19

Full Truck Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Full Truck for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Full Truck Alliance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Full Truck Alliance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Full Truck Alliance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Pixalate Introduces Apple Google App Store Watchdog Database Childrens Online Safety Ratings Empower Parents, Schools, Civil Liberty Advocates to Flag App Developers Transmitting Precise Geolocation or Failing to Obtain Parental Consent

Full Truck Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Full Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Full Truck's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Full Truck's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingB
Cash And Short Term Investments20.8 B

Full Truck Fundamentals Growth

Full Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Full Truck, and Full Truck fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Full Stock performance.

About Full Truck Performance

By examining Full Truck's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Full Truck's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Full Truck is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 10.00  9.50 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.07  0.08 
Return On Capital Employed 0.06  0.06 
Return On Assets 0.07  0.07 
Return On Equity 0.07  0.08 

Things to note about Full Truck Alliance performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Full Truck for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Full Truck Alliance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Full Truck Alliance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Full Truck Alliance is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Pixalate Introduces Apple Google App Store Watchdog Database Childrens Online Safety Ratings Empower Parents, Schools, Civil Liberty Advocates to Flag App Developers Transmitting Precise Geolocation or Failing to Obtain Parental Consent
Evaluating Full Truck's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Full Truck's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Full Truck's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Full Truck's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Full Truck's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Full Truck's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Full Truck's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Full Truck's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Full Truck's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Full Truck's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Full Truck's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Full Truck Alliance is a strong investment it is important to analyze Full Truck's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Full Truck's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Full Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Your Current Watchlist to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Full Truck Alliance. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Will Application Software sector continue expanding? Could Full diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Full Truck. Anticipated expansion of Full directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Full Truck data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.20)
Dividend Share
1.384
Earnings Share
0.55
Revenue Per Share
11.975
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.108
Full Truck Alliance's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Full's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Full Truck's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Full Truck's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Full Truck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Full Truck is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Full Truck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.