Bayfirst Financial Corp Stock Performance

BAFN Stock  USD 6.81  0.29  4.45%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.72, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Bayfirst Financial's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Bayfirst Financial is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Bayfirst Financial Corp has a negative expected return of -0.48%. Please make sure to confirm Bayfirst Financial's value at risk, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the Accumulation Distribution and day typical price , to decide if Bayfirst Financial Corp performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Bayfirst Financial Corp has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of conflicting performance in the last few months, the Stock's technical and fundamental indicators remain very healthy which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm investors. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
4.45
Five Day Return
5.42
Year To Date Return
(13.47)
Ten Year Return
(60.18)
All Time Return
(60.18)
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0491
Payout Ratio
0.1749
Last Split Factor
3:2
Forward Dividend Rate
0.32
Dividend Date
2025-06-15
1
Acquisition by Thomas Zernick of 202 shares of Bayfirst Financial at 7.43 subject to Rule 16b-3
11/13/2025
2
Is BayFirst Financial Corp. stock affected by interest rate hikes - 2025 Market Overview Verified Swing Trading Watchlists - newser.com
11/19/2025
3
Targets Report How BayFirst Financial Corp stock benefits from tech adoption - July 2025 Highlights AI Powered BuySell Recommendations - B NI V
12/02/2025
4
BayFirst Financial Corp. Closes 94.6 Million Loan Sale to Banesco USA
12/15/2025
5
Trading Systems Reacting to Volatility - Stock Traders Daily
12/24/2025
6
Understanding the Setup and Scalable Risk - Stock Traders Daily
01/15/2026
7
Acquisition by Harris Alexander Octavius of tradable shares of Bayfirst Financial at 15.02 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/27/2026
8
BayFirst Financial Posts Earnings Results
01/29/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow58.4 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-515.9 M

Bayfirst Financial Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  930.00  in Bayfirst Financial Corp on November 2, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (249.00) from holding Bayfirst Financial Corp or give up 26.77% of portfolio value over 90 days. Bayfirst Financial Corp is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 2.4412% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 21% of stocks are less volatile than Bayfirst, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Bayfirst Financial is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 3.27 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.2 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

Bayfirst Financial Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Bayfirst Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 6.81 90 days 6.81 
about 89.04
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bayfirst Financial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 89.04 (This Bayfirst Financial Corp probability density function shows the probability of Bayfirst Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Bayfirst Financial has a beta of 0.72 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bayfirst Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bayfirst Financial Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bayfirst Financial Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Bayfirst Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Bayfirst Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bayfirst Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.306.749.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.996.438.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.947.389.82
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.687.018.34
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bayfirst Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bayfirst Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bayfirst Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bayfirst Financial Corp.

Bayfirst Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bayfirst Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bayfirst Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bayfirst Financial Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bayfirst Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.55
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.72
σ
Overall volatility
0.83
Ir
Information ratio -0.23

Bayfirst Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bayfirst Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bayfirst Financial Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Bayfirst Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Bayfirst Financial has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Bayfirst Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: BayFirst Financial Posts Earnings Results

Bayfirst Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bayfirst Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bayfirst Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bayfirst Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments88.9 M

Bayfirst Financial Fundamentals Growth

Bayfirst Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Bayfirst Financial, and Bayfirst Financial fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Bayfirst Stock performance.

About Bayfirst Financial Performance

By examining Bayfirst Financial's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Bayfirst Financial's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Bayfirst Financial is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets(0.02)(0.02)
Return On Capital Employed(0.03)(0.03)
Return On Assets(0.02)(0.02)
Return On Equity(0.26)(0.25)

Things to note about Bayfirst Financial Corp performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Bayfirst Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Bayfirst Financial Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Bayfirst Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Bayfirst Financial has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Bayfirst Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: BayFirst Financial Posts Earnings Results
Evaluating Bayfirst Financial's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Bayfirst Financial's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Bayfirst Financial's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Bayfirst Financial's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Bayfirst Financial's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Bayfirst Financial's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Bayfirst Financial's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Bayfirst Financial's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Bayfirst Financial's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Bayfirst Financial's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Bayfirst Financial's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Bayfirst Financial Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bayfirst Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bayfirst Financial Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bayfirst Financial Corp Stock:
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Bayfirst Financial Corp. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.
You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Bayfirst diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bayfirst Financial. Projected growth potential of Bayfirst fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Bayfirst Financial data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
6.094
Dividend Share
0.24
Earnings Share
(3.01)
Revenue Per Share
14.251
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.11)
Investors evaluate Bayfirst Financial Corp using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Bayfirst Financial's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Bayfirst Financial's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Bayfirst Financial's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Bayfirst Financial should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Bayfirst Financial's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.