Triumph Financial Stock Price Prediction
| TFIN Stock | 67.24 3.32 4.71% |
Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.305 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.565 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.744 | Wall Street Target Price 66 |
Using Triumph Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triumph Financial from the perspective of Triumph Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Triumph Financial using Triumph Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Triumph using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Triumph Financial's stock price.
Triumph Financial Short Interest
An investor who is long Triumph Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Triumph Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Triumph Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 57.7805 | Short Percent 0.1723 | Short Ratio 10.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 61.3318 |
Triumph Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Triumph Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Triumph. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Triumph can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Triumph Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Triumph Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Triumph Financial.
Triumph Financial Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Triumph Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Triumph Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Triumph Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Triumph Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Triumph Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Triumph Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Triumph because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Triumph Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 70.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Triumph contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Triumph Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Triumph Financial trading at USD 67.24, that is roughly USD 0.0223 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Triumph Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Triumph Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Triumph Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Triumph Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Triumph Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triumph Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triumph Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Triumph Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Triumph Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triumph Financial's historical news coverage. Triumph Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 68.01 and 72.75, respectively. We have considered Triumph Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Triumph Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triumph Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Triumph Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triumph Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triumph Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triumph Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 2.37 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
67.24 | 70.38 | 0.26 |
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Triumph Financial Hype Timeline
Triumph Financial is at this time traded for 67.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. Triumph is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 70.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.42%. The volatility of related hype on Triumph Financial is about 519.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 67.43. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.92. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Triumph Financial had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Triumph Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Triumph Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Triumph Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triumph Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Triumph Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triumph Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | (1.26) | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.49 | (2.36) | 18.58 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | 0.59 | 10 per month | 0.94 | 0.05 | 3.15 | (1.48) | 7.64 | |
| PFBC | Preferred Bank | 1.68 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.42 | (2.14) | 12.44 | |
| OBK | Origin Bancorp | (0.17) | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.13 | 2.91 | (2.24) | 8.57 | |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp | 0.67 | 9 per month | 1.16 | 0.05 | 3.16 | (2.17) | 7.86 | |
| OCFC | OceanFirst Financial Corp | 0.22 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.55 | (3.70) | 11.35 | |
| WABC | Westamerica Bancorporation | (0.42) | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.02 | 2.97 | (1.77) | 7.62 | |
| CNOB | ConnectOne Bancorp | 0.95 | 5 per month | 0.98 | 0.09 | 3.61 | (1.83) | 6.62 | |
| QCRH | QCR Holdings | 1.94 | 8 per month | 1.09 | 0.15 | 3.55 | (1.74) | 8.45 | |
| RBCAA | Republic Bancorp | 0.36 | 10 per month | 1.34 | 0.01 | 3.24 | (2.43) | 9.56 |
Triumph Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Triumph price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triumph using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triumph charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Triumph Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Triumph Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Triumph Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Triumph Financial based on analysis of Triumph Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Triumph Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Triumph Financial's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001723 | 0.001515 | 0.001742 | 0.001839 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.94 | 4.34 | 3.91 | 2.69 |
Pair Trading with Triumph Financial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Triumph Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Triumph Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Triumph Stock
| 0.76 | FSEA | First Seacoast Bancorp | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp Earnings Call Tomorrow | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | IROQ | IF Bancorp | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | NSTS | NSTS Bancorp | PairCorr |
Moving against Triumph Stock
| 0.71 | GRAB | Grab Holdings Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | NIO | Nio Class A | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | GRLF | Green Leaf Innovations | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Triumph Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Triumph Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Triumph Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Triumph Financial to buy it.
The correlation of Triumph Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Triumph Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Triumph Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Triumph Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Triumph Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Triumph Stock, please use our How to Invest in Triumph Financial guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph Financial. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Earnings Share 0.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Triumph Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.